五矿期货农产品早报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The short - term trend of soybeans, soybean meal, and oils is expected to be weak, with soybeans and soybean meal showing a short - term volatile weakness. Sugar prices in the domestic market are likely to decline in the future, and cotton presents a pattern of weak supply and demand. Egg and pig prices are under pressure, with eggs maintaining a strategy of selling on rebounds and pigs being recommended for short - selling during short - term rebounds [2][4][9][12][15][17][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading Strategy - 09 and other far - month soybean meal is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and an upward breakthrough requires additional stimuli such as biodiesel and production [4]. - Oils are under medium - term downward pressure, and are expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - The price of Zhengzhou sugar is likely to decline in the future [12]. - The short - term cotton price will be boosted, and the future focus is on the marginal change of inventory [15]. - Eggs should maintain the strategy of selling on rebounds [17]. - For pigs, short - selling during short - term rebounds is recommended, and wait - and - see or short - term trading is advised before the contradiction deepens [20]. Important Information Soybean/Meal - Overnight, US soybeans fell by more than 2%, and the domestic soybean meal spot price decreased slightly. The estimated soybean arrivals in May, June, and July are 919.75 million tons, 1.1 billion tons, and 1.05 billion tons respectively. The soybean oil mill's开机率 was 54.55% yesterday, with a transaction volume of 73,100 tons [2]. - The US soybean planting progress has reached 48%, and the Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress is close to 60%. The Brazilian soybean premium quote has declined [2]. Oils - India's vegetable oil imports in April were 891,558 tons, and its inventory dropped to 1.33 million tons [5]. - From May 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 60.17%. From May 1 - 10, the export volume decreased by 9% compared with the same period last month, and is expected to increase by 6.63% in the first 15 days [5]. Sugar - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly, and the spot price also showed a slight decline. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar increased significantly [11]. Cotton - On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated narrowly. The USDA monthly report was bearish for the US but bullish globally. As of May 11, the US cotton planting rate was 28% [14]. Eggs - Yesterday, most egg prices were stable, with a few declining. The supply increased slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. Today's egg prices are expected to be mostly stable, with a few areas at risk of decline [16]. Pigs - Yesterday, domestic pig prices generally declined. Due to weak demand and slow - down in pig sales, pig prices are expected to continue to fall today [19]. Agricultural Product Key Charts - The report provides various charts related to agricultural products, including inventory, import volume, production, and price difference charts for soybeans/meal, oils, sugar, cotton, eggs, and pigs, with data sources from multiple institutions such as MYSTEEL, USDA, and the Chinese Sugar Industry Association [22][29][33][41][52][63][76][83][95].