国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250516

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts and trading suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc. [2][11] - It analyzes the fundamentals, market conditions, and influencing factors of each commodity, and gives corresponding trend strengths. [11][14] Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: In a high - level oscillatory market due to falling oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA, and take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. [8][11] - PTA: Suggest to take long positions in the forward contract at low prices. Pay attention to the subsequent polyester inventory situation. [11] - MEG: Supply further contracts, and the price continues to be strong unilaterally. [11] Synthetic Rubber - The upward trend is slowing down, and it is expected to enter an oscillatory pattern. [12][14] Asphalt - Follows the crude oil to oscillate repeatedly. [15] LLDPE - In the short - term, it is relatively strong, but in the medium - term, it is under pressure due to factors such as new capacity, weak demand, and falling costs. [32] PP - The price rises slightly, but the trading volume is weak. [35][36] Caustic Soda - Supported by short - term downstream replenishment, the spot price rebounds, but there is still pressure in the later period. [40] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trading atmosphere is tepid. [45] Methanol - Runs in an oscillatory manner. [48][51] Urea - Oscillates with support, presenting a long - short game pattern. [56][57] Styrene - In the short - term, it oscillates strongly, mainly due to factors such as the release of downstream demand, low port inventory, and unexpected equipment maintenance. [58][59] Soda Ash - The spot market changes little and is expected to run stably in the short - term. [63] LPG - Short - term negative factors are realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [65][72] PVC - In the short - term, it oscillates, but there is still pressure in the later period due to high production and inventory. [75][76] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil continues to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil experiences a short - term pullback, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market narrows slightly. [80] Container Freight Index (European Line) - Oscillates strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [82][94] Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - Both are in short - term oscillations. Hold the long PF and short PR positions. [95] Offset Printing Paper - Oscillates weakly due to factors such as a decline in the operating rate and an increase in inventory. [98][100]