国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250516

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Gold has broken below the support level, and silver is oscillating downward. Copper lacks a clear driving force and its price is oscillating. Aluminum is in a range-bound oscillation, while alumina continues to rebound. Zinc's price is declining, lead is in a range adjustment, and tin is oscillating within a narrow range [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2506 and Gold T+D decreased by 2.90% and 3.06% respectively, while Comex Gold 2506 and London Gold Spot increased by 1.61% and 1.98%. The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed to varying degrees, and the ETF and inventory data also had corresponding changes [4]. - News: The Fed Chairman Powell will re - evaluate the "key parts" of the 2020 monetary policy framework, and long - term interest rates may rise. The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [4][9]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Silver - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2506 and Silver T+D decreased by 2.20% and 2.50% respectively, while Comex Silver 2506 and London Silver Spot increased by 1.23% and 1.31%. Trading volume, open interest, ETF, and inventory data all had corresponding changes [4]. - News: Similar to gold, including Fed policy and US economic data [4][9]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [8]. Copper - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by 1.36%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.08%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and various price spreads all had changes [10]. - News: Macroscopically, the Fed may adjust the interest - rate framework, and long - term low - interest rates may end. Microscopically, China's copper imports in April 2025 were flat compared to the same period last year, and the cumulative imports from January to April decreased by 3.9% year - on - year [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12]. Aluminum and Alumina - Fundamentals: For aluminum and alumina, on May 15, 2025, 0.2 million tons of spot alumina were traded in Henan at an ex - factory price of 3100 yuan/ton [13]. - Trend Intensity: 0 for both aluminum and alumina, indicating a neutral outlook [15]. Zinc - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by 0.53%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 1.51%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [16]. - News: The US April PPI was lower than expected, and retail sales showed signs of weak consumer spending [17]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Lead - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.24%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by 0.03%. Various data such as trading volume, open interest, and price spreads changed [19]. - News: Similar to zinc, including US economic data [20]. - Trend Intensity: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [20]. Tin - Fundamentals: Yesterday, the closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 0.21%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.18%. Trading volume, open interest, inventory, and spot prices all had changes [23]. - News: A series of macro and corporate news, including Fed policy, US economic data, and corporate cooperation and development news [24]. - Trend Intensity: - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [27].