陕鼓动力：点评报告2024年业绩保持稳健增长，气体运营业务贡献新增长引擎-20250516

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company achieved steady growth in 2024, with revenue of 10.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, up 2.1% year-on-year, driven by a focus on distributed energy market expansion and customer demand [1][12] - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 2.56 billion yuan, a 2.7% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 250 million yuan, up 5.6% year-on-year, attributed to cost reduction and market expansion efforts [1] - The company is positioned as a leader in axial flow compressors, benefiting from the commercialization and rapid development of compressed air energy storage [3] Financial Performance - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 22.5%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year, while the net margin was 11.1%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][17] - In Q1 2025, the gross margin decreased to 20.5%, down 2.9 percentage points year-on-year, but the net margin increased to 10.9%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company’s operating expenses ratio for 2024 was 9.2%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with R&D expenses rising due to increased investment in the distributed energy market [2][17] Market Outlook - The industrial gas market in China is projected to grow from 212.9 billion yuan in 2023 to 284.2 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 10% [5] - The company’s subsidiary, Qin Feng Gas, achieved a market share of 1.6% in 2023, establishing itself as a leader in the domestic industrial gas sector [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit is expected to reach 1.13 billion yuan in 2025, 1.24 billion yuan in 2026, and 1.36 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 8%, 10%, and 10% respectively [6] - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are projected to be 13.2, 12.0, and 11.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 [6]