光大期货工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250516

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On May 15, polysilicon fluctuated weakly, with the main contract 2506 closing at 37,920 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.68%, and the position decreasing by 6,707 lots to 37,985 lots. The spot price of SMM polysilicon N-type silicon material was 38,750 yuan/ton, and the spot premium over the main contract narrowed to 830 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon fluctuated strongly, with the main contract 2506 closing at 8,410 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.36%, and the position decreasing by 22,511 lots to 12,400 lots. The spot reference price of Baichuan industrial silicon was 9,552 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 553 grade dropped to 8,300 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 150 yuan/ton [2]. - There are rumors in the market that six major crystalline silicon companies will jointly acquire production capacity and cut production, but the implementation still needs to be verified. The industry will hold another meeting regarding self - restricted production and price support for polysilicon, and the release schedule of planned new production capacity may be postponed [2]. - As the delivery period approaches, the ratio of virtual to real warehouse receipts for polysilicon is too high, providing short - term space for bulls. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have not improved, and the futures price has not been driven by crystalline silicon, continuing to be weak. It is necessary to track the meeting results and the movement of warehouse receipts and be vigilant against abnormal risks before the delivery month [2]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Futures Settlement Price: The futures settlement prices of both industrial silicon and polysilicon's main and near - month contracts remained unchanged at 8,450 yuan/ton and 37,920 yuan/ton respectively on May 15 and 16 [4]. - Spot Price: The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon, polysilicon, organic silicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells are provided, with most data for May 16 marked as unavailable. The current lowest deliverable price of industrial silicon is 8,300 yuan/ton, and that of polysilicon is 38,750 yuan/ton. The spot discount of industrial silicon widened to 150 yuan/ton, and the spot premium of polysilicon narrowed to 830 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: For industrial silicon, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory decreased by 10,820 tons to 336,690 tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 3,800 tons to 250,000 tons, with the total social inventory decreasing by 3,800 tons to 417,000 tons. For polysilicon, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 60,000 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 28.72 million tons, with the total social inventory increasing by 0.3 million tons to 28.7 million tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][6][7][8][9][10]. 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [12][15][17]. 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [20][21][23]. 2.4 Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels in main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][34]. Group 4: Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhan Dapeng, a science master, currently the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. The team has won the awards of the 15th and 16th Best Metal Industry Futures Research Teams of Futures Daily and Securities Times and the title of Excellent Non - ferrous Metals Industry Team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [36]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [36]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel [37].