国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term trend judgments for multiple futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. Each product has its own specific trend, such as gold breaking below the support level, silver oscillating downward, etc. [2][5] Summary by Product Category Precious Metals - Gold: Broke below the support level, with a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2506 was 737.64, down 2.90%. [2][7][11] - Silver: Oscillated downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2506 yesterday was 7991, down 2.20%. [2][7][11] Base Metals - Copper: Lacked a clear driver, with prices oscillating. The trend intensity was 0. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 77,870, down 1.36%. [2][13][15] - Aluminum: Oscillated within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - Alumina: Continued to rebound, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][16][19] - Zinc: Prices were adjusted downward, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22590, down 0.53%. [2][20][21] - Lead: Adjusted within a range, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16975, up 0.24%. [2][23][24] - Tin: Oscillated in a narrow range, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 265,210, down 0.21%. [2][26][31] - Nickel: The news affected market sentiment, while the fundamentals changed little, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] - Stainless Steel: Inventory decreased slightly at a high level, and short - term repair might not be too high, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][32][36] Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The inventory accumulation pattern was difficult to reverse, and the weak trend might continue, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][37][39] - Industrial Silicon: The weak fundamentals remained, and the futures price had a downward driving force, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - Polysilicon: The downstream prices continued to decline, and the futures price was weak, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][40][42] - Iron Ore: Short - term bullish factors were realized, and the upward driving force slowed down, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][43] - Rebar: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - Hot - Rolled Coil: Oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][45][47] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: There was concentrated production reduction in the main producing areas, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - Manganese Silicide: The raw material price continued to rise, and prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][50][53] - Coke: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - Coking Coal: With the decline of molten iron, prices oscillated in a wide range, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][54][58] - Steam Coal: The coal mine inventory increased, and prices oscillated weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. [2][59][61] - Log: Oscillated repeatedly, with a trend intensity of - 1. [2][62][66] - Para - Xylene: Had a single - sided oscillating market. [2][67] - PTA: The strategy was to go long on PX and short on PTA. [2][68] - MEG: The single - sided trend remained relatively strong. [2][68] - Synthetic Rubber: The upward trend slowed down. [2] - Asphalt: Oscillated repeatedly following crude oil. [2] - LLDPE: Had a medium - term oscillating market. [2] - PP: Prices rose slightly, but trading volume was weak. [2] - Caustic Soda: There was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - Glass: The price of the original sheet was stable. [2] - Methanol: Oscillated. [2] - Urea: Oscillated with support. [2] - Styrene: Oscillated in the short term. [2] - Soda Ash: There were few changes in the spot market. [2] - LPG: Short - term bearish factors were realized, and attention should be paid to the lower support. [2] - PVC: Oscillated in the short term, and there was still pressure in the later stage. [2] - Fuel Oil: Continued to fall at night, and the short - term weakness continued. [5] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Retreated in the short term, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market slightly narrowed. [5] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The pressure was released stage by stage, and it was looking for support below. [5] - Soybean Oil: There was an emotional bubble in US soybean oil, and the risk of edible oils increased. [5] - Soybean Meal: Concerns about the biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybeans might lead to a weak oscillation. [5] - Soybean No. 1: Might oscillate weakly following other soybean products. [5] - Corn: Oscillated. [5] - Sugar: Trended weakly. [5] - Cotton: Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market sentiment. [5] - Eggs: Oscillated and adjusted. [5] - Live Pigs: The game continued. [5] - Peanuts: Oscillated strongly. [5] Others - Container Freight Index (European Line): Oscillated strongly. Hold the 6 - 8 and 10 - 12 reverse spreads. [5] - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: Oscillated in the short term. Hold the strategy of going long on PF and short on PR. [5] - Offset Printing Paper: Oscillated weakly. [5]