欧盟碳市场行情简报（2025年第81期）-20250516

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The strengthening of the equity market has driven the EUA to stop falling and rebound, but it is overbought in the short - term and there is still a risk of decline in the medium - term, with an upper resistance level of €75 [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Latest Market Conditions - Primary Market: The auction price is 70.11 euros/ton (-2.42%), and the bid - cover ratio is 1.71 [3] - Secondary Market: The EUA futures settlement price is 73.41 euros/ton (1.49%), and the trading volume is 25,400 lots (0.41) [3] Strategies - Short - term overbought, medium - term decline risk remains, with an upper resistance level of €75 [3] Bullish Factors - German wind and photovoltaic power generation has decreased, and the remaining load has increased; the peace negotiation between Ukraine and Russia has failed, and Putin was absent; the three major European stock indexes have risen across the board [3] Bearish Factors - The European Commission may propose to set up a new fund to support energy infrastructure, and the funding source may include EU ETS auction revenues; the economic growth rate of the eurozone in the first quarter was weaker than expected [5] Other Factors - Trump's visit to the Gulf focuses on major business agreements, which may affect market sentiment; the agenda of the UK - EU summit to be held in London on May 19 has been announced, and the connection of the UK - EU carbon market is listed as the second priority, second only to defense [5]