甲醇日评：等待反弹后的沽空机会-20250516

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not available Group 2: Core View of the Report - It is recommended to wait for a short - selling opportunity after the rebound of methanol MA2509. The reasons are that the bullish macro - sentiment is hard to last, the supply of inland coal - based methanol is recovering quickly, and the relative valuation of methanol is not low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices and Basis - Methanol Futures Prices: MA01 decreased from 2425 yuan/ton to 2388 yuan/ton, a 1.53% drop; MA05 fell from 2450 yuan/ton to 2400 yuan/ton, a 2.04% decline; MA09 dropped from 2365 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, a 1.90% decrease [1]. - Methanol Spot Prices: Prices in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price in Taicang decreased by 3.70% from 2497.50 yuan/ton to 2405.00 yuan/ton, while the price in Shandong increased by 0.21% from 2375.00 yuan/ton to 2380.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA decreased from 72.50 yuan/ton to 17.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.50 yuan/ton [1]. - Coal Spot Prices: The prices of Ordos Q5500, Datong Q5500, and Yulin Q6000 all decreased, with declines of 0.58%, 1.02%, and 0.99% respectively [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged [1]. 2. Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - based methanol remained at 504.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of natural - gas - based methanol remained at - 410.00 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profit of Methanol: The profits of Northwest MTO, East China MTO, and acetic acid increased by 36.14%, 38.96%, and 18.40% respectively. However, the profit of MTBE decreased by 9.44%, and the profit of formaldehyde increased by 4.41% [1]. 3. Information - Domestic Futures Information: The main methanol contract MA2509 declined, opening at 2363 yuan/ton, closing at 2320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 802,959 lots and an open interest of 734,318 lots, showing a decrease in volume and open interest [1]. - Foreign Information: Three methanol plants with a total capacity of 5.6 million tons in a Middle - Eastern country are operating at a reduced load, and there are plans for other methanol plants in the Middle East to shut down for maintenance in mid - to - late May [1].