行业点评报告：现房制度为什么率先出现在信阳？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The introduction of the current housing sales system in Xinyang is seen as a signal that the local real estate market has reached a bottoming out phase [4] - The implementation of the current housing sales policy is expected to boost buyer confidence and aid in inventory digestion, despite the long inventory turnover period and declining new construction area [3][4] - The real estate market in Xinyang is characterized by a significant decline in new housing sales, with a peak in 2021 followed by an 80% drop by 2024 [2] Summary by Relevant Sections New Housing Sales - In 2021, new housing sales in Xinyang peaked at 1,097,000 square meters, but by 2024, the sales area had dropped to 218,000 square meters, reflecting an 80% decline from the peak [2] - The sales area of pre-sold housing in 2024 is estimated at approximately 130,000 square meters, down 82% from 2022 [2] Land Market - In 2022, the area of land purchased in Xinyang was 15,280 square meters, a 75.8% year-on-year decrease, leading to a low contribution of land revenue to government funds [2] - Only one residential land transaction occurred in the first four months of 2025, with a total area of 157,000 square meters, indicating a sluggish land market [2] New Construction - New construction area in Xinyang has been declining since 2022, with a 29.7% drop in 2022 and a projected 40.5% decrease in 2024 [2] - The estimated new construction area for 2024 is around 130,000 square meters, an 87% drop from 2021 [2] Inventory - The inventory of unsold housing in Xinyang was 2,967,000 square meters in 2021, decreasing by 8.6% in 2022 and by 12.2% in 2024 [2] - By the end of 2024, the unsold housing inventory is expected to be 2,089,000 square meters, with residential unsold inventory around 1,460,000 square meters and a turnover period of 20 months [2] Population - The resident population of Xinyang in 2024 is projected to be 6.05 million, a 1.9% decrease year-on-year, and a reduction of 430,000 compared to 2018, marking five consecutive years of population decline [2]