摩根士丹利：中国社会融资规模数据表明金融体系周期于2024 年触底

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive [4]. Core Insights - The financial system cycle in China is showing signs of bottoming, supported by government bond issuance and a review of local government financing [2][4]. - Total Social Financing (TSF) growth rebounded to 8.7% year-on-year in April 2025, driven primarily by government bonds, which saw a growth of 20.9% year-on-year [7][10]. - Corporate bond net issuance increased year-on-year in April 2025, reversing a decline from the previous year due to stricter controls on Local Government Financing Vehicles (LGFVs) [7][10]. Summary by Sections TSF and Loan Growth - TSF growth is expected to moderate in the latter half of 2025 due to reduced government bond support and more rational loan extensions by banks [2]. - New TSF in April 2025 was Rmb1.16 trillion, a significant increase from a negative figure in April 2024 [7]. - RMB loans recorded a growth of 7.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating stability since January [7]. Government and Corporate Bonds - Year-to-date government bonds added Rmb4.85 trillion, up Rmb3.58 trillion year-on-year, reflecting a recovery in issuance [10]. - A broad-based review of the quality of projects supported by special local government bonds led to a slowdown in issuance in the first half of 2024, but a resumption of normal issuance is expected for 2025 [7][10]. Deposits and Financial Stability - Household deposit growth remained high at 10.7% year-on-year, while corporate deposit growth recovered to 2.1% year-on-year in April 2025, indicating a stabilizing financial environment [7][10].