摩根士丹利：存储芯片展望-此轮周期呈 W 型复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious view on the memory industry, indicating a W-shaped cycle rather than a V-shaped recovery [7][9]. Core Insights - The memory cycle is currently demand-led, characterized by stockpiling in the first half of the year and a payback period in the second half [1][2]. - Despite a strong recovery in memory stocks, the real demand outlook is deteriorating, particularly in the second half of 2025, with AI server strength unlikely to offset growth contraction [2][9]. - Pricing dynamics for DRAM and NAND are expected to show initial strength in the second quarter of 2025 but are likely to decline in the latter half of the year [3][10]. Summary by Sections Memory Pricing - DRAM contract prices are tracking +5% in 2Q25, with DDR4 prices up 20% due to stockpiling ahead of year-end production phase-outs [3][10]. - NAND contracts are tracking +6% in 2Q25, +4% in 3Q25, and likely flat by 4Q25, assuming production cuts remain in effect [3][20]. Market Dynamics - HBM consumption has been reduced to 15.5 billion Gb from 18 billion Gb in 2025 due to inventory excesses and adjustments in product demand [4][27]. - The report anticipates a potential shortfall of 4 billion Gb in HBM supply for 2025 if Samsung cannot secure HBM4 orders in the second half of the year [4][30]. Stock Implications - The report suggests that memory stocks will continue to trade within a range, with DRAM appearing toppy after extreme volatility [5][9]. - Samsung is currently out of favor but is priced at cycle trough multiples, while Hynix is favored for its HBM leadership and is priced at a premium [5][31]. Tactical Considerations - The report favors HBM over commodity memory, highlighting robust AI demand as a positive factor [31][32]. - For DRAM, the report prefers stocks like Winbond and GigaDevice, while remaining cautious about overall pricing trends [33][34].