高盛：亚洲股票视角 - 中美关税紧张局势缓和后上调预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral stance on equities, shifting from an underweight position previously [10]. Core Insights - A better-than-expected outcome from US/China trade talks has led to a reduction in tariff tensions, prompting multiple global forecast revisions [2][6]. - Regional equity market earnings have been raised due to a more favorable growth outlook, with expected earnings growth for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index at 9% for both 2025 and 2026 [14][18]. - The report anticipates moderately higher returns driven by improved earnings and a favorable macro backdrop, with a 12-month target for the MSCI Asia Pacific index set at 660, implying an 8% total return [18][28]. Summary by Sections US/China Trade Talks - The US and China announced a 90-day pause in tariffs, reducing the US effective tariff rate on Chinese exports to 39% from 107%, and the China effective tariff rate on US exports to around 30% from 144% [3][6]. - Following the announcement, the regional index gained 3.2% in three trading days, with significant gains in Taiwan, China Offshore, and India markets [3][4]. Global Forecast Revisions - The reduction in tariffs has led to an increase in the US real GDP growth forecast for 4Q from 0.5% to 1.0% and a decrease in the probability of recession from 45% to 35% [6][11]. - In China, GDP growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been raised to 4.6% and 3.8%, respectively, with a corresponding increase in MSCI China index earnings growth forecasts [7][11]. Regional Earnings Growth - Earnings growth for the MSCI Asia Pacific index has been revised up by 2 percentage points for 2025 and 2026, primarily due to better macro growth expectations in China and US-exposed markets [14][18]. - Individual market revisions include a cumulative +5pp for China, +4pp for Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Korea, and +3pp for Japan and China A [14][15]. Return Expectations - The report expects 3-month and 12-month returns for the MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index of 0% and 8% in USD price terms, driven by better earnings growth and a higher target P/E multiple of 13.4x [18][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of alpha opportunities over beta, given that markets have already priced in much of the tariff relief [28][29]. Market Allocation and Themes - The report favors China and Japan, with a domestic sector tilt, and highlights themes such as resilience in a challenging macro context, AI beneficiaries, and shareholder yield [29][30]. - The report also notes the impact of USD depreciation on market differentiation, identifying winners and losers [32][29].