2025年4月美国零售数据点评：关税扰动显现，美国消费数据转弱

Group 1: Retail Data Overview - In April 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.1% month-on-month, slightly above the expected 0% but significantly lower than March's revised increase of 1.7%[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) also rose by 0.1%, below the expected 0.3% and down from the previous value of 0.6%[2] - The decline in retail data indicates the negative impact of tariffs on the economy, as consumers front-loaded purchases in March to avoid price increases[4] Group 2: Sector Performance - Notable declines were observed in sectors with prior high purchases, including automobiles (-0.1%), apparel (-0.4%), sporting goods (-2.5%), and grocery stores (-2.1%) in April[5] - The automotive sector saw a significant drop from a previous increase of 5.5% in March to -0.1% in April, attributed to the implementation of a 25% tariff on imported vehicles[9] - The consumer confidence index fell to 52.2 in April, a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from March, indicating weakened consumer sentiment[7] Group 3: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Following the retail data release, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow up 0.65% and Nasdaq down 0.81%[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased by 8 basis points to 4.45%, while the 2-year yield fell by 9 basis points to 3.96%[3] - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts increased, with a projected 51.3% probability of a 25 basis point cut by September 2025[13]