早间看点：ITS马棕5月前15日出口增6.63%，NOPA美豆4月压榨量为1.902亿蒲高于预期-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report is bearish as the significant increase in production led to higher - than - expected ending stocks [21]. - The USDA May supply - demand report is bullish for soybeans as the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks are lower than expected [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 07 (BMD) was 3846.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.61% and an overnight decline of 0.41% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of currency indices including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are also given. For instance, the US dollar index was 100.79, with a decline of 0.25% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2505 in East China was 8510, with a basis of 460 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions like the US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina are listed. For example, the CNF premium in Brazil was 133 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 444 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 20 - 24) for major US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - median precipitation and generally lower temperatures. The weekend in the US Midwest will be dry, and more rainfall may occur next week. Different weather conditions are detailed for the western and eastern regions [3][5]. - Three institutions (AmSpec, ITS, SGS) reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month, with growth rates of 14.21%, 6.63%, and 19.22% respectively [6][7]. - RHB analysts believe that Indonesia's recent increase in the export special tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy [7]. - As of the week ending May 13, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 15% the previous week and 9% last year [7]. - As of the week ending May 8, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales met expectations, with specific changes in export sales, shipments, and new sales for different market years [8][9][10]. - The NOPA reported that US soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, and soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels [10]. - The US EPA has submitted a proposed rule to the White House to review the amount of biofuels that refineries must blend into their fuels starting in 2026 [10]. - CONAB predicted that the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production would reach 168.3418 million tons, with an increase of 14% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Anec predicted that from May 11 - 17, Brazilian soybean exports would be 3.9898 million tons, and soybean meal exports would be 627,400 tons [12]. - Ukrainian producers expect soybean prices to rise at the end of May, and they may reduce the sowing area by 12% this year [12]. - The predicted Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is 6.2 million tons, and future precipitation conditions need to be closely monitored [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more - than - one - week high due to the increase in capesize vessel freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 70% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On May 15, the trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased by 1.13% [15]. - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year, with changes in different types of feed and raw material usage ratios [15]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the price of eggs increased by 1.5% [16]. International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and there are different probabilities for rate cuts in July [17]. - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, industrial output, retail sales, PPI, etc. are presented, with some data meeting expectations and others deviating [17][18]. - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, and the supply growth forecast is raised [18]. Domestic News - On May 15, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was raised, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [20]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report shows that production, exports, imports, and consumption changed, and the ending stocks increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, higher than expected [21]. - The USDA May soybean report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean exports, production, and ending stocks, with the ending stocks lower than expected [22]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 15, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 28.657 billion yuan, including 4.803 billion yuan from commodity futures and 23.853 billion yuan from stock index futures. Different sectors of commodity futures also had varying capital flows [24][25]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.