BABA(HK:09988) CMS·2025-05-16 06:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][5] Core Views - Alibaba's FY2025Q4 results exceeded expectations with revenue of 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, driven by strong performance in e-commerce and cloud services [1] - The report highlights the significant growth in Customer Management Revenue (CMR) at 71.1 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, and a notable increase in cloud revenue at 30.1 billion yuan, up 18% year-on-year [1][5] - The report emphasizes the potential for continued improvement in e-commerce monetization rates and the long-term growth prospects of AI and cloud services [1][5] Financial Data Summary - FY2025 revenue is projected to reach 996.3 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6% [2] - Adjusted EBITA for FY2025 is expected to be 173.1 billion yuan, reflecting a 5% year-on-year increase [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for FY2025 is forecasted at 157.9 billion yuan, with a 0% growth rate compared to FY2024 [2] - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) of 8.31 yuan for FY2025 [2] Valuation and Target Price - The target price for Alibaba is set at 153 HKD, with the current stock price at 122.1 HKD [3][5] - The report suggests a 12x PE for e-commerce and a 5x PS for cloud business, indicating strong valuation potential [5] Stock Performance - The stock has shown strong performance with a 1-month increase of 17.3%, a 6-month increase of 46.6%, and a 12-month increase of 59.3% [4]