阿里巴巴集团（BABA）：阿里巴巴集团2025财年第四季度略未达标；尽管短期利润率波动，论点不变

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group with a 12-month price target of US$178.00, slightly reduced from the previous target of US$180.00 [5][9]. Core Insights - The report indicates a mixed outlook for Alibaba Group, with revenue growth of 7% year-over-year and adjusted EBITA growth of 36% year-over-year, both slightly missing expectations by 1-2% [2][4]. - The core Taobao Tmall (TTG) business is expected to maintain a positive trajectory, with a forecasted CMR growth of 8% and EBITA growth of 5% for FY26E [3][4]. - The cloud segment is projected to grow revenue by 23% in FY26E, despite a slight decrease in EBITA margin due to increased investments and seasonality effects [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenues for FY25E are estimated at Rmb996,347 million, with a slight increase to Rmb994,026 million for FY26E [4][13]. - Adjusted EBITA is forecasted to grow from Rmb163,584 million in FY25E to Rmb178,738 million in FY26E, reflecting a margin increase from 16.4% to 18.0% [4][13]. Business Segments - Taobao Tmall (TTG): Revenue growth is expected to be driven by a shift towards higher-commissioned Tmall, with CMR growth of 12% in the latest quarter [3][4]. - Cloud Services: Management remains optimistic about growth, with a forecast of Rmb118,028 million in revenue for FY26E, despite a decrease in EBITA margin to 7% [3][4]. - Local Services: Expected EBITA losses may widen due to increased competition in the food delivery market [3][4]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights a reasonable valuation at 12x P/E, with a projected equity free cash flow yield of 2.7% for FY26E [4][9]. - The price-to-book value is estimated at 2.2x for FY25E, indicating a solid valuation relative to the market [5][9]. Market Position - Alibaba Group is positioned as a leader in the cloud and e-commerce sectors, with significant investments in AI and quick commerce expected to drive long-term growth [4][8]. - The report emphasizes the potential upside from consumer-related stimulus measures, which could further enhance Alibaba's market position [4][8].