BEKE(US:BEKE) Hui Feng Yin Hang·2025-05-16 05:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for KE Holdings with a target price of USD 26.30, indicating a potential upside of approximately 30% from the current share price of USD 20.23 [5][7][23]. Core Insights - KE Holdings reported a 42% year-on-year growth in revenue and a 6% non-GAAP net profit margin in 1Q25, which exceeded management's guidance but was largely in line with market expectations. The management's guidance for a stable recovery in profitability is viewed positively [2][12]. - The company anticipates a flat secondary home Gross Transaction Value (GTV) and a 10% year-on-year growth in primary home GTV for 2Q25, which is considered conservative. The guidance for a 6.8% non-GAAP operating profit margin in 2025 suggests improved visibility for full-year earnings [2][12]. - Management expressed confidence in maintaining stable commission rates despite concerns about potential cuts in various cities, attributing any potential downside risks more to market competition than regulatory changes [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 1Q25, KE Holdings' total net revenue was RMB 23.328 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 4.821 billion, reflecting a 42% increase in revenue year-on-year [22]. - The company achieved a non-GAAP net profit of RMB 1.393 billion in 1Q25, which was stable compared to the previous quarter [22]. - The report projects total net revenues to grow from RMB 93.457 billion in 2024 to RMB 116.586 billion by 2027, with a consistent increase in operating profit over the same period [13]. Business Segments - The existing home transaction services segment generated RMB 6.870 billion in 1Q25, while new home transaction services contributed RMB 8.075 billion, marking a year-on-year growth of 64% [22]. - Home renovation and furnishing services showed a significant improvement in contribution margin, increasing to 32.6% in 1Q25 from 29.8% in 4Q24, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [4][22]. Valuation Metrics - The report maintains a target price based on an unchanged target PE multiple of 23x, applied to the average 2025-26 non-GAAP EPS estimate of RMB 8.44 [5][23]. - The projected PE ratios for the upcoming years are 23.0 for 2024, 19.2 for 2025, and further declining to 13.2 by 2027, reflecting a positive outlook on earnings growth [8][15].