BABA(US:BABA) Hui Feng Yin Hang·2025-05-16 05:45Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Alibaba Group with a target price of USD 176.00, indicating a potential upside of 31.3% from the current share price of USD 134.05 [5][10][49]. Core Insights - The report highlights an improved outlook on Customer Management Revenue (CMR), which accelerated to 12% growth in the March quarter, up from 9% in December, surpassing expectations [1][4]. - The forecast for FY26 CMR has been raised to 8% from 7%, reflecting confidence in continued growth as Alibaba lifts service fee exemptions for SMEs and rolls out a full-platform ad tool [1][10]. - Cloud revenue is expected to grow at 20% year-on-year in FY26, driven by robust AI demand and a commitment to AI capital expenditures [1][2]. - Despite some competitive pressures in local services, top-line estimates for FY26-28 have been increased by 1-2% [1][10]. Financial Performance - For 4QFY25, Alibaba reported revenue of RMB 236.5 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, which aligns with consensus estimates [4][44]. - Adjusted EBITA rose 36% year-on-year to RMB 32.6 billion, exceeding internal estimates but slightly below consensus [4][44]. - The adjusted EBITA margin improved to 13.8%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to enhanced CMR growth [4][44]. Revenue Breakdown - CMR growth was a standout at 12% year-on-year, driven by online GMV growth and an improving take rate [44]. - Cloud revenue increased by 18% year-on-year, with public cloud revenue growth maintaining triple-digit year-on-year growth during 4QFY25 [44]. - The International Digital Commerce Group saw a 22% year-on-year revenue increase, supported by strong cross-border performance [44]. Shareholder Returns - Alibaba repurchased USD 0.6 billion of stock in 4QFY25, totaling USD 11.9 billion for FY25, which represents about 6.1% of the outstanding shares [44]. - A two-part dividend of USD 2.0 per ADS has been approved, consisting of a regular cash dividend of USD 1.05 and a one-time extraordinary cash dividend of USD 0.95, implying a yield of approximately 1.5% [44].