汇丰：全球集装箱航运：中美关税暂停，一剂强心针

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Evergreen Marine (EVG) to Buy from Hold and OOIL to Hold from Reduce, while maintaining Buy ratings on Maersk and SITC, and Hold ratings on CSH-H/A and HLAG [6][10]. Core Insights - The US and China have agreed to a 90-day reduction in reciprocal tariffs, which is expected to boost shipments from China to the US and drive an early peak season in freight rates [2][10]. - Freight rates are anticipated to improve in Q2 and Q3 2025 due to capacity discipline among liners, with spot rates to the US rising by 4-8% [4][10]. - The container shipping sector is projected to remain profitable in 2025, with EBIT margins reported between 5-23% in Q1 2025, and profit estimates for certain companies raised by 16-31% [5][10]. Summary by Sections Tariff Developments - A 90-day reduction in US-China tariffs will lower tariffs on Chinese exports to the US to 30% from 145% and on US exports to China to 10% from 125% [2]. Shipping Volume Trends - April saw a 30-60% decline in China to US volumes, but recent data indicates a recovery, driven by restocking and the tariff pause [3][10]. Freight Rate Expectations - Freight rates have held steady in Q2 2025, with the SCFI Composite declining only 0.9% since March, while spot rates to the US have increased [4][10]. Profitability Outlook - The sector is expected to remain profitable in 2025, with raised profit estimates for companies like EVG, CSH H/A, and OOIL due to high transpacific exposure [5][10]. Stock Performance - Container shipping stocks have rebounded, with price increases of 2-13% since May 12, 2025, reflecting positive market sentiment [6][10]. Company-Specific Forecasts - Evergreen Marine's 2025 recurring profit forecast has been raised by 16% to TWD62 billion, while OOIL's recurring profits for 2025-26 have been increased by 11-31% [41][49]. - COSCO Shipping's EBIT estimates for 2025 have been raised by 42%, reflecting resilient spot freight rates and an early peak season [57][61].