Netflix-摩根大通：奈飞公司-期待广告层级规模、广告技术及体育直播活动的最新进展；维持增持评级

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for Netflix Inc (NFLX) with a price target of $1,150 by December 2025 [5][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights that NFLX shares have outperformed the S&P 500, driven by its defensive subscription model and streaming leadership amid macroeconomic uncertainties [1]. - Expectations for NFLX's upcoming Upfronts include updated Ad Tier Monthly Active Users (MAUs) projected to exceed 100 million, expansion of the Netflix Ads Suite internationally, and a focus on key live/sports content [1][15]. - The report projects significant growth in advertising revenue, estimating$ 3.0 billion in 2025, more than doubling from $1.4 billion in 2024 [1][15]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth is projected at +15.1% for 2025, with subscriber growth of +8.5% and an increase in Average Revenue per Member (ARM) of +2.1% [16]. - The report anticipates average growth rates of +13% for foreign exchange-neutral (FXN) revenue, +22% for operating income, +24% for GAAP EPS, and +30% for free cash flow (FCF) in 2025 and 2026 [2]. - The 2025 content slate is expected to drive subscriber growth, with key releases including "Squid Game S3" and several returning series [16]. Market Position and Trends - NFLX is positioned as a key beneficiary of the ongoing disruption in linear TV, with a strong global subscriber base of over 300 million [10]. - The report notes that NFLX's ad-supported tier is expected to expand its subscriber base while generating high-margin incremental revenue [10]. - The streaming industry is rationalizing, and NFLX is expected to benefit from the proliferation of internet-connected devices and consumer preference for on-demand video [10]. Valuation Metrics - The December 2025 price target of$ 1,150 is based on approximately 38 times the estimated 2026 GAAP EPS of $30.46, which is a premium compared to mega-cap tech peers [11]. - The report indicates that NFLX's valuation is justified by its top-line growth and faster bottom-line growth compared to peers [11].