BABA(09988) 华泰证券·2025-05-16 07:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8] Core Insights - The company's core business performance remains robust, with Q4 FY25 total revenue reaching 236.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 7.2% [1] - Adjusted EBITA for Q4 FY25 was 32.6 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 36.1%, aligning closely with market expectations [1] - The company's cloud business revenue grew by 17.7% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations of 16.9% [1] - The management expresses confidence in the continued acceleration of cloud revenue growth due to strong demand and ongoing iterations of AI model supply [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 FY25 revenue for Taobao Group was 101.4 billion RMB, up 8.7% year-on-year, outperforming the consensus expectation of 4.9% [2] - The adjusted EBITA profit for Taobao Group was 41.7 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [2] - The company expects to continue releasing commercial capabilities in FY26, supported by improved penetration rates and commission rate increases [2] Revenue Forecasts and Valuation - The report adjusts FY26/FY27 non-GAAP net profit forecasts down by 5.2% and 4.1% to 171.0 billion RMB and 199.3 billion RMB, respectively, while introducing a new FY28 estimate of 215.8 billion RMB [4][16] - The SOTP-based target price for the US stock is set at 189.6 USD, and for the Hong Kong stock at 185.1 HKD, corresponding to 18.7/16.1/14.9 times FY26-28 non-GAAP forecast PE [4][16] Segment Performance - The cloud business continues to show strong growth, with management noting that AI-related product revenue has seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [3] - The management is optimistic about the future growth of the cloud segment, driven by expanding customer types beyond the internet sector [3] Key Metrics - The company’s projected revenue for FY26 is 1,088.3 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2% [6] - The adjusted EBITA margin for FY26 is expected to be 18.0% [18] - The adjusted EPS for FY26 is projected at 9.42 RMB, with a PE ratio of 13.43 [6][18]