BABA(HK:09988) EBSCN·2025-05-16 07:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of CNY 996.347 billion for FY2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%. The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was CNY 129.470 billion, up 62.4% year-on-year [1][4]. - In Q4 FY2025, the company achieved a revenue of CNY 236.454 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6%, and a net profit of CNY 12.382 billion, which is a significant increase of 278.7% year-on-year [1][9]. - The company has initiated a special cash dividend of USD 1.05 per ADS and a one-time cash special dividend of USD 0.95 per ADS, enhancing shareholder returns [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's core business segments showed strong performance, particularly in the Taotian Group, which saw a 11.8% increase in customer management revenue in Q4 FY2025, driven by an increase in take rate and effective marketing tools [2]. - The Cloud Intelligence Group experienced a revenue growth of 17.7% year-on-year, reaching CNY 30.127 billion, with strong demand for AI products, which have seen triple-digit year-on-year growth for seven consecutive quarters [2]. Financial Forecasts - The report has adjusted the non-GAAP net profit forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 downwards by 5% and 1% respectively, now predicting CNY 169.813 billion and CNY 185.318 billion. A new forecast for FY2028 is introduced at CNY 197.920 billion [4][5]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming fiscal years are 11.56% for FY2026, 6.71% for FY2027, and 5.29% for FY2028 [5]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be CNY 7.11 for FY2026, CNY 7.64 for FY2027, and CNY 7.89 for FY2028 [10][13]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 40.20% by FY2026 and remain stable through FY2028 [12]. Shareholder Returns - The company repurchased 1.197 billion shares for USD 11.9 billion in FY2025, reducing the number of ordinary shares by 5.1% [3].