Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The urea market is gradually returning to the fundamentals, with market sentiment being mostly wait - and - see. The futures price of urea opened low and closed lower, and the market is waiting for the clarification of export policies. The supply is relatively stable with a slight contraction in weekly output, and the demand shows an increase in the short - term. The market will return to the supply - demand logic, and the short - term trend of the futures is still strong, but the upside and downside space is limited under the macro price - stabilizing policy [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and closed lower, with upstream factory quotes stable. The market is waiting for export policy changes. Supply has a slight weekly contraction, and daily output fluctuates around 200,000 tons. Attention should be paid to the impact of new production capacity on supply. After the export is opened, local supply liquidity may be affected. On the demand side, downstream is cautious about agricultural fertilizer preparation, and the demand for compound fertilizer factories is in the tail - end stage. Inventory has been significantly reduced, and the short - term futures trend is strong, but the price range is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1885 yuan/ton, closed lower, with a closing price of 1885 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.85%, and a position of 239,683 lots (- 5411 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 1145 lots, and short positions increased by 2644 lots. Some futures companies' net long and net short positions changed. On May 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7355, a net increase of 3 compared to the previous trading day [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes are stable, and the market is waiting for export policy changes. The ex - factory quotes of urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei are in the range of 1830 - 1850 yuan/ton, and those in Shanxi have little change [4]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes are stable, and the futures closing price is up. Based on Shandong, the basis is flat compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract is 43 yuan/ton (+ 15 yuan/ton) [7]. Supply Data - On May 16, 2025, the national daily urea output was 201,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day [8].
逐渐重归基本面，市场情绪多观望
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-05-16 08:33