2025年4月金融数据点评：政府债持续发力，信贷需求再度走弱

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the growth of social financing (社融) has been driven by accelerated government bond issuance, while credit demand remains weak. In April 2025, new social financing amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan [5]. - The report notes that the total social financing stock grew by 8.74% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.37 percentage points. However, credit demand from both households and enterprises has shown signs of fatigue due to multiple factors, including insufficient demand, debt restructuring, and tariff impacts [5]. - The report indicates that in April, new RMB loans increased by 884 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 2,465 billion yuan, reflecting a negative contribution from credit to social financing [5]. Summary by Sections Social Financing and Credit Demand - In April, the government issued 2.16 trillion yuan in bonds, a year-on-year increase of 732.7 billion yuan, contributing significantly to the growth of social financing [5]. - The report details that household loans decreased by 5,216 billion yuan year-on-year, with short-term loans down by 4,019 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans down by 1,231 billion yuan [5]. - For enterprises, new loans amounted to 6,100 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 2,500 billion yuan, influenced by ongoing debt restructuring and weakened financing demand due to tariffs [5]. Deposit and Money Supply Trends - The report states that M1 and M2 money supply grew by 1.5% and 8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a decline in the liquidity of funds [5]. - By the end of April, RMB deposits in financial institutions increased by 8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month decrease of 4,400 billion yuan [5]. - Non-bank deposits rose by 1.57 trillion yuan year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in wealth management products [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the continued strength of government bonds will support social financing growth, while credit demand is expected to recover gradually. Recent financial policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are anticipated to improve the banking sector's fundamentals [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398), China Construction Bank (601939), Postal Savings Bank of China (601658), Jiangsu Bank (600919), and Changshu Bank (601128) [5].