Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 08:49Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share major indices rose slightly this week except for the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The four stock index futures showed differentiation, with large-cap blue-chip stocks outperforming small and mid-cap stocks. The successful Sino-US tariff negotiation in Geneva on Monday boosted market risk appetite, but the four stock index futures declined across the board on Thursday and Friday after the initial rally. The market trading activity decreased slightly compared with last week. Domestically, the economic fundamentals show dual characteristics of marginal improvement in the trade environment and gradual repair of domestic demand. The phased easing of Sino-US tariffs significantly improves the external environment, and the support of finance to the real economy is further strengthened under loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies, which may further boost market risk appetite. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [4][86]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Futures: IF2506 rose 0.98% this week with a -0.66% decline on Friday, closing at 3846.0; IH2506 rose 1.09% with a -1.01% decline on Friday, closing at 2695.2; IC2506 fell 0.05% with a -0.25% decline on Friday, closing at 5601.8; IM2506 fell 0.19% with a -0.15% decline on Friday, closing at 5933.8 [8]. - Spot: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 1.12% this week with a -0.46% decline on Friday, closing at 3889.09; the Shanghai 50 Index rose 1.22% with a -0.86% decline on Friday, closing at 2716.66; the CSI 500 Index fell 0.10% with a 0.01% increase on Friday, closing at 5715.85; the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.23% with a 0.18% increase on Friday, closing at 6068.12 [8]. 2. News Overview - Trade: The joint statement of the Sino-US economic and trade talks in Geneva was released. The US will adjust the tariff rates on Chinese goods, and China will also adjust the counter - tariff on US goods and suspend non - tariff measures, which significantly eases the risk of short - term trade friction escalation [11]. - Economic data: In April, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and fell 0.1% year - on - year; PPI fell 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year. By the end of April, the stock of social financing scale increased 8.7% year - on - year, and the balance of M2 increased 8% year - on - year, accelerating from last month. From January to April, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans was about 3.2%, about 4 basis points lower than last month, remaining at a historically low level [12]. 3. Weekly Market Data - Domestic main indices: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.76% this week with a -0.40% decline on Friday, closing at 3367.46; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.52% with a -0.07% decline on Friday, closing at 10179.60; the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.10% with a -0.57% decline on Friday, closing at 995.24; the SME 100 Index rose 0.68% with a 0.25% increase on Friday, closing at 6337.62; the ChiNext Index rose 1.38% with a -0.19% decline on Friday, closing at 2039.45 [15]. - Overseas main indices (as of Thursday): The S&P 500 rose 4.54% this week with a 0.41% increase on Thursday, closing at 5916.93; the UK FTSE 100 rose 0.92% with a 0.57% increase on Thursday, closing at 8633.75; the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09% with a -0.46% decline on Thursday, closing at 23345.05; the Nikkei 225 rose 0.67% with a flat close on Thursday, closing at 37753.72 [16]. - Industry sector performance: Most industry sectors rose, with the beauty care and non - bank finance sectors leading the gains, while the national defense and military industry and computer sectors having the largest declines. The main funds in the industry generally showed a net outflow, with large net outflows in the computer and electronics sectors. SHIBOR short - term interest rates first declined and then rose, and the capital market remained relatively loose. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 5.125 billion yuan in the secondary market, and the market value of restricted shares lifted was 25.185 billion yuan. Northbound funds traded a total of 596.299 billion yuan [20][23][28][29]. - Futures basis and net positions: The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all fluctuated. The relevant data of net positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [38][41][47][51]. - Option data: The data of the trading volume distribution, open interest distribution, trading and open interest PCR, implied volatility, and historical volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 options were presented in the form of charts, but specific numerical summaries were not provided in the text [66][70][73][76][78][82]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The current domestic economy shows dual characteristics of marginal improvement in the trade environment and gradual repair of domestic demand. The phased easing of Sino - US tariffs significantly improves the external environment, and the support of finance to the real economy is further strengthened under loose monetary and proactive fiscal policies, which may further boost market risk appetite [86]. - Strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [86].