油脂周报：供应压力逐步兑现，期价反弹高度受限-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the first half of May, the global oil market experienced significant events, and domestic oil prices first declined and then rebounded, with continued differentiation among varieties. The short - term domestic oil market will correct, constrained by factors such as the slump in international crude oil and US soybean oil prices and the expectation of improved supply. However, the macro - improvement brought about by the warming of Sino - US relations and the positive impact of the USDA May report limit the decline. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in the arrival volume of soybeans and palm oil in the second quarter will drag the overall oil market down, and it will stop falling and rebound in the third quarter due to factors such as the decrease in the sown area of new soybean and rapeseed crops in North America and possible weather speculation[1][2][5]. - For trading strategies, the short - term rebound of bean, palm, and rapeseed oil contracts for September delivery is limited. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up or short - sell after the rebound ends. For arbitrage, the general trend of the widening spread between bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts for September delivery remains unchanged, but the process of upward repair of the spread will not be smooth, and it is recommended to enter the market in a rolling manner on dips[3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Palm Oil - Short - term: The seasonal production increase season will drive the accumulation of inventory in the producing areas and open the window for domestic purchases. Under the simultaneous improvement of supply and demand at home and abroad, the palm oil contract for September delivery is likely to decline in the second quarter. However, factors such as the possible improvement in export demand after the price decline in the producing areas, the disturbance on the international crude oil and macro - sides will intensify the fluctuations during the decline[6]. - Malaysia: In April, Malaysia's palm oil production and demand both increased, but the production increase of 21.52% was much larger than the export increase of 9.62%, resulting in a continued rise in the ending inventory to 1870000 tons, higher than market expectations. In the next few months, the production is expected to increase, and the SSPOMA data shows that the production from May 1 - 10 increased by 22.31% month - on - month. After the price decline, export demand is expected to improve, and the strong purchasing willingness of major importing countries may slow down the inventory accumulation speed[7]. - Indonesia: In February, production decreased slightly month - on - month, but exports increased significantly, and the ending inventory dropped to 4140000 tons. From March to April, due to factors such as Ramadan, the rainy season, and the transfer of export demand from Malaysia, the supply was weak and demand was strong, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The precipitation in 2024 may affect the production recovery from May to July 2025, but the abundant precipitation from October to December 2024 is beneficial for the production increase in the third quarter of 2025. However, the B40 plan and the increase in palm oil exports may prevent smooth inventory accumulation[9]. - China: In April, the domestic palm oil market continued to be in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory remaining below 400000 tons. After the price decline in late April, the import profit improved significantly, and a large number of new purchases were made from late April to early May. It is estimated that the arrival volume from May to July will be 228000, 228000, and 12000 tons respectively, and the inventory is expected to stop falling and rebound from May[13]. - Medium - to - long term: Until October 2025 is the traditional production increase season for palm oil. The continuous production increase will put pressure on prices in the second and third quarters. After that, as the producing areas enter the seasonal production decline season, prices will strengthen again[16]. Soybean Oil - Short - term: The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are still weak. Although factors such as the improvement of macro - sentiment, the positive impact of the USDA May report, and the favorable news of the US biodiesel policy stimulate a short - term rebound, the large - scale arrival of South American soybeans from May to July and the normal weather in the early sowing period of new US soybean crops limit the rebound height, and the overall trend is weak and volatile, with the domestic market weaker than the international market[17]. - South America: The 24/25 soybean harvest in South America is a foregone conclusion. The combined output of Brazil and Argentina is 218 million tons, an increase of 15.29 million tons year - on - year. The export data of soybeans and soybean products in 2025 have also increased significantly. The supply pressure in the second quarter is large, and the decline in the basis of Brazilian soybeans has weakened the cost support for domestic soybean oil[18]. - US: The USDA May report estimates that the sown area of new US soybean crops in the 25/26 season will decrease by 4.13% year - on - year, and the supply - demand situation will gradually change from loose to tight. However, it is still in the early sowing period, and there is uncertainty. In the short term, there is rainfall in the Midwest in the next 1 - 2 weeks, which is beneficial for sowing, and there is no opportunity for weather speculation[21]. - Policy: The future development of the US biofuel policy and Sino - US tariff issues needs attention. The market expects an increase in the biodiesel blending volume in 2026, but the actual blending target is uncertain. The extension of the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy is also uncertain. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs has a limited impact on soybean purchases in the second quarter but may affect the market in the fourth quarter[22][24]. - China: The domestic soybean arrival volume from May to July is expected to reach about 10 million tons per month on average. The soybean oil inventory has stopped falling and rebounded to 654400 tons, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the future[26]. - Medium - to - long term: In the third and fourth quarters, the selling pressure of Brazilian soybeans will gradually ease. Possible weather speculation in North America and the possible difficulty in importing US soybeans if the Sino - US trade dispute intensifies again will help the long - term soybean oil price to strengthen and raise the price center[28]. Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed oil contract for September delivery has been the strongest among the three oils. Due to China's additional 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the import volume of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the long - term is expected to decline. Coupled with the tight supply - demand situation of old - crop rapeseed in Canada and the possible reduction in new - crop production, rapeseed oil is expected to maintain its strong position. However, without policy support, it is difficult for rapeseed oil to have an independent sharp rise in the second quarter when the overall trend of soybean and palm oil is weak[29]. - Abroad: The supply - demand situation of Canadian rapeseed in the 24/25 season is very tight, which has supported the continuous strengthening of the rapeseed oil price since late March. The production has decreased, while domestic consumption and exports have increased. The inventory - to - sales ratio has dropped significantly. The sown area of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season is expected to decline, and there is a risk of drought in some areas, which may lead to weather speculation during the sowing period[30]. - China: From January to March, the continuous large - scale import of rapeseed and rapeseed oil and the sluggish consumption have led to inventory accumulation. As of May 9, the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was as high as 863900 tons. However, due to the additional tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and the anti - dumping investigation, the far - month rapeseed supply is expected to tighten, which will support the price of rapeseed oil in the third and fourth quarters[31].