上下空间有限，盘面窄幅波动

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market is in a narrow - range fluctuation. The Fed's interest - rate cut sentiment is rising but still in a tug - of - war. Under the game between bulls and bears, the market is oscillating, with limited upside and downside space. It may face short - term pressure, but the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish [1]. - The supply side remains tight, with a tight situation in the mining end and high costs for smelters. Although copper production has increased against the trend, the cost pressure on smelters is obvious. The demand side shows resilience, but there may be a marginal weakening in May compared to April [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower today, under pressure. The US April PPI unexpectedly dropped by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years. The supply side is tight, and the smelter cost is high. The downstream is resistant to high prices. The demand in May may be marginally weaker than in April. The market is in a multi - empty game and is likely to be in a narrow - range oscillation [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, moved low, and closed down. The closing price was 78140. The number of long orders of the top twenty decreased by 3014 to 124860 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 5012 to 112073 hands. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 425 yuan/ton, and in South China was 400 yuan/ton. On May 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9523 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 14.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.6 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.37 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 63,200 tons, an increase of 2700 tons from the previous period. As of May 12, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,300 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 184,700 tons, a slight decrease of 925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 168,600 short tons, an increase of 1928 short tons from the previous period [9].