棕榈油市场周报-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategy suggests being cautious about the risk of price decline due to the slow recovery of palm oil production [7]. - This week, the main 2509 contract of palm oil rose by 1.24%, closing at 7,984 yuan/ton. In the context of good weather in major producing areas and continuous growth in production, the April supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) showed that the increase in Malaysian palm oil exports was lower than expected, and the ending inventory increased, which suppressed the palm oil futures market. However, Indonesia raised the special export tax on palm oil, which supported the price. Domestically, the foreign quotation rebounded, the import cost increased, the import profit decreased, the palm oil consumption maintained at a rigid level, downstream buyers were mainly on the sidelines, and the weekly trading volume decreased. Overall, palm oil is expected to run weakly under the pressure of seasonal production increase. Later, attention should be paid to production, inventory, and import - export demand in producing areas [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - Strategy: Be cautious about price decline due to slow production recovery [7]. - Market review: The main 2509 contract of palm oil rose 1.24% this week, closing at 7,984 yuan/ton [8][11]. - Market outlook: MPOB's April report showed export growth lower than expected and rising inventory, suppressing the market. Indonesia's tax increase supported the price. Domestically, import cost up, profit down, consumption rigid, and trading volume down. Palm oil is expected to be weak under seasonal production pressure [8]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price movement: The main 2509 contract of Dalian palm oil rose 1.24% this week, closing at 7,984 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread change: As of May 16, the September - January spread of palm oil was - 4 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to last week [18]. - Position and warehouse receipt: As of May 16, the net long position of the top 20 futures traders in palm oil was 3,108 lots, a decrease of 2,975 lots from last week. The number of futures warehouse receipts was 330 lots, unchanged from last week [24]. 3.3. Spot Market - Price change: As of May 16, the palm oil quotation in Guangdong was 8,600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week. The FOB price was 980 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton, and the CNF price was 1,018 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars/ton [30]. - Basis change: As of May 16, the basis between palm oil in Guangdong and the main contract was 552 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to last week [34]. 3.4. Industrial Situation 3.4.1. Upstream - Malaysian production and export in April: Production was 1.686 million tons, an increase of 298,500 tons (21.52% month - on - month) from March. Exports were 1.1023 million tons, an increase of 96,700 tons (9.62% month - on - month) from March [40]. - Malaysian inventory in April: The ending inventory in April was 1.8655 million tons, an increase of 302,700 tons (19.37% month - on - month) from March [44]. - Malaysian export in May: From May 1 - 15, according to ITS, exports were 524,596 tons, an increase of 11.7% from April 1 - 15; according to SGS, exports were 448,972 tons, an increase of 19.2% from April 1 - 15 [50]. 3.4.2. Domestic - Inventory: As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic areas was 337,300 tons, a decrease of 18,800 tons (5.28% week - on - week) and a decrease of 62,500 tons (15.62% year - on - year) [54]. - Import profit: As of May 16, 2024, the spread between the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong and the import cost from Malaysia was - 181.84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 168.99 yuan/ton from last week [58]. 3.4.3. Substitutes - Inventory: As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key domestic areas was 654,400 tons, an increase of 27,600 tons (4.40% week - on - week) and a decrease of 194,500 tons (22.91% year - on - year). The rapeseed oil inventory was 809,500 tons, an increase of 13,600 tons from last week [61]. - Price: As of May 16, the quotation of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the quotation of rapeseed oil in Fujian was 9,340 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from last week [68]. - Spread: This week, the spot and futures spreads among soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all narrowed [76]. 3.4.4. Downstream - Consumption in Malaysia: In the 2024/25 season, the food consumption of palm oil was 870,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous year; the industrial consumption was 2.9 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from the previous year [82]. - Consumption in Indonesia: In the 2024/25 season, the food consumption of palm oil was 7.55 million tons, an increase of 250,000 tons from the previous year; the industrial consumption was 13,900 tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous year [89]. - Consumption in China: In the 2024/25 season, the food consumption of palm oil was 3.77 million tons, an increase of 850,000 tons from the previous year; the industrial consumption was 2.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous year [95]. 3.5. Options Market - From the trend of palm oil, it is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to wait and see for now [100].