Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 09:00Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by macro and industry maintenance, the caustic soda futures price fluctuated strongly this week. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,535 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 2.38% from last week's close. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose to around 2,594 yuan/ton [8]. - In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda decreased by 1.3% to 82.6% due to the shutdown and maintenance of some devices. On the demand side, the scale of alumina production reduction expanded, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber decreased by 0.35% to 80.65%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing increased by 2.55% to 63.23%. The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 7.08% to 415,900 tons, with high inventory pressure. The Shandong caustic soda price rose slightly, and the Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [8]. - Looking ahead, the operating rate is expected to remain stable at a low level next week. The alumina production reduction scale continues to expand, and the non - aluminum demand is weak. In the short term, the supply and demand of caustic soda are both weak, and the high inventory restricts the price increase space. The SH2509 is expected to fluctuate, with support around 2,500 and resistance around 2,600 [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Price: The caustic soda futures price fluctuated strongly. The SH2509 contract closed at 2,535 yuan/ton, up 2.38% from last week. The converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose to around 2,594 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to maintenance, demand was mixed (alumina production reduction expanded, viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased, printing and dyeing operating rate increased), and inventory increased by 7.08% to 415,900 tons. The Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [8]. - Outlook: The operating rate will remain stable at a low level. The alumina production reduction scale continues to expand, non - aluminum demand is weak, and high inventory restricts price increases. The SH2509 is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The main caustic soda contract fluctuated and rose this week, and the 09 - contract position increased [9]. - Spot Market: The benchmark price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan, with a converted price of around 2,594 yuan/ton; in Henan, it was 896 yuan with a converted price of 2,800 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it was 880 yuan with a converted price of 2,750 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong was 3,200 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine was 100.5 yuan/ton. The futures increase was higher than the spot, and the basis converged [14][25][30][35]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Upstream: The prices of raw salt in the northwest and Shandong remained stable, and the price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal dropped to around 614 yuan [41][47]. - Supply: The caustic soda output in March was 3.5893 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.47%. The operating rate this week decreased to 82.6% [50]. - Demand: In March, the alumina output was 7.9128 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 75.76%. The operating rate of viscose staple fiber this week was 80.65%. The alumina price rebounded slightly, and the viscose staple fiber price declined [56][61][64]. - Import and Export: In March, the caustic soda import was 60 tons, and the cumulative import from January to March was 180 tons. In March, the caustic soda export was 290,500 tons, and the cumulative export from January to March was 958,000 tons [70][76]. - Inventory: The weekly sample inventory of liquid caustic soda was 415,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.08% [82]. - Cost: The ECU costs in Shandong and Inner Mongolia remained stable this week [86]. - Profit: The Shandong chlor - alkali profit recovered to a neutral level [92]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 22.29%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 23.74% [95].