瑞达期货纯碱玻璃市场周报-20250516

Group 1: Report Summary - The investment rating of the report is not provided [N/A] - The core view of the report is that both the soda ash and glass markets are facing challenges. The soda ash market is pressured by high inventory, weak demand, and potential new capacity. The glass market is also affected by low demand and high inventory, but may experience a technical rebound near the cost line. Investors are advised to closely monitor real - estate data and enterprise cold - repair dynamics [7] Group 2: Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - This week, the soda ash futures fell 1.23%, and the glass futures fell 2.8%. The soda ash futures were weak, and the glass futures continued their downward trend. The demand for soda ash from the photovoltaic glass industry slowed down, and the high inventory suppressed the price of soda ash. The glass market was pessimistic, and the bottom - cost support was difficult to maintain [7] Market Outlook - For soda ash, supply contraction is limited due to full production of some enterprises and potential new capacity. Demand is weak, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. The price is expected to continue to decline. For glass, supply may increase, demand is weak, and high inventory restricts price increases. There may be a technical rebound near the cost line [7] Strategy Recommendations - For the SA2509 contract, short - term trading is recommended in the range of 1250 - 1320, with stop - loss in the range of 1230 - 1360. For the FG2509 contract, trading in the range of 990 - 1080 is recommended, with stop - loss in the range of 960 - 1120 [7] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the soda ash futures price rose, and the glass futures price fell [9] Basis - The soda ash spot price rebounded, and the basis strengthened. As of May 16, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1340 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the basis was 51 yuan/ton. The glass spot price fell more than the futures price, and the basis weakened. As of May 16, 2025, the price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in Shahe was 1076 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton, and the basis was 70 yuan/ton [19][27] Spread - The soda ash - glass spread continued to strengthen, mainly due to the over - decline of glass. As of May 16, 2025, the glass - soda ash spread was 284 yuan/ton [29][31] Group 4: Industry Chain Analysis Production and Supply - The domestic soda ash operating rate and production decreased significantly this week. As of May 16, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 78.76%, down 8.57% week - on - week, and the national soda ash weekly output was 67.77 tons, down 6.3 tons week - on - week. The number of domestic glass production lines remained unchanged, but the daily output increased slightly. As of May 16, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 15.67 tons, up 0.16 tons week - on - week. The operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass remained flat [33][44][48] Profitability - The profit of domestic soda ash enterprises increased this week, while the profit of glass enterprises declined. As of May 16, 2025, the theoretical profit of soda ash by the dual - ton soda - making method was 287.50 yuan/ton, up 12.50 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda method was 65.40 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The profit of glass enterprises by different production methods all declined [39][42] Inventory - The inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises decreased, while the inventory of glass enterprises increased. As of May 16, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 171.2 tons, up 1.13 tons week - on - week, and the inventory of glass enterprises was 6808.2 million weight boxes, up 52.2 million weight boxes week - on - week [54][56] Downstream Demand - The deep - processing orders of domestic glass increased compared with last week but were still at a historical low. As of May 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days [58][60]