Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 09:11Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment has warmed up, but the weak reality still dominates. The steel mills have proposed the first round of price cuts for coke. The main contract of coke is expected to fluctuate weakly [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Macro - level: National ministries are promoting the regulation of national crude steel production, the central bank has lowered the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points, and the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate has been cut by 0.25 percentage points since May 8. Overseas, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate, and Trump and the UK Prime Minister reached a limited bilateral trade agreement [7]. - Supply - demand and profit: In the short term, the supply elasticity of coke is better than that of coking coal, and the growth space of hot metal output is limited. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 7 yuan/ton, and steel mills have proposed the first - round price cut after the festival [7]. - Technical aspect: The weekly K - line of the main coke contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - Strategy suggestion: The market sentiment has warmed up, with mainly rigid - demand restocking of coal. The main coke contract should be treated as fluctuating weakly [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - Futures market: As of May 16, the position of coke futures contracts was 52,600 lots, a decrease of 631 lots from the previous period. The 1 - 9 contract month - spread was 27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50 yuan/ton. The registered warehouse receipt volume was 1,570 lots, an increase of 380 lots, and the futures screw - coke ratio was 2.13, an increase of 0.04 [11][18]. - Spot market: As of May 15, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port was 1,510 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. As of May 16, the coke basis was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 [24]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - Production: In March, the output of above - scale industrial raw coal was 440 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. From January to March, it was 1.2 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.1%. In March 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.16147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.23%. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.23%, an increase of 0.18%, and the daily coke output was 53.63, an increase of 0.13 [29][33]. - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 7 yuan/ton [33]. - Downstream situation: As of May 16, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4477 million tons, a decrease of 0.87 million tons from the previous week. As of May 9, the total coke inventory was 9.5444 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 17.36% [37]. - Inventory structure: The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill inventory decreased seasonally. On May 16, the inventory of 18 ports was 2.8138 million tons, a decrease of 23,000 tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.638 million tons, a decrease of 72,300 tons, and the available days were 12.01 days, a decrease of 0.09 days [42]. - Fundamental data: From January to March 2025, the coke export volume was 1.77 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.50%. In April 2025, China exported 10.462 million tons of steel, and from January to April, the cumulative export was 37.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.20%. In March 2025, the second - hand housing price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.20% month - on - month. As of the week of May 11, the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 1.6404 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.27%. The transaction area of first - tier cities was 540,000 square meters, a month - on - month increase of 5.87%, and that of second - tier cities was 752,500 square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 3.07% [47][51][55].