Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-05-16 09:33Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious bullish rating on styrene [7]. 2. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the rise of international oil prices, styrene prices rose significantly this week. The EB2506 contract closed at 7,661 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 9.36% from last week's closing price [7]. - On the supply side, Hengli Petrochemical's 720,000 - ton plant shut down for maintenance this week, with some plants increasing their operating loads. Production decreased by 1.27% month - on - month to 326,500 tons, and capacity utilization decreased by 0.93% month - on - month to 71.27% [7]. - On the demand side, downstream operating rates mostly increased: EPS operating rate increased by 14.96% month - on - month to 62.34%, PS operating rate increased by 0.8% month - on - month to 57.1%, ABS operating rate decreased by 1.61% month - on - month to 67.39%, UPR operating rate increased by 6% month - on - month to 33%, and styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate increased by 0.54% month - on - month to 66.92% [7]. - In terms of inventory, factory inventory decreased by 8.17% month - on - month to 212,600 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 17.23% month - on - month to 56,700 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 24.14% month - on - month to 36,000 tons [7]. - In terms of cost, the spot price of pure benzene in East China increased significantly this week, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, and non - integrated costs increased month - on - month. The styrene spot price rose strongly, and non - integrated profits were significantly repaired [7]. - Looking ahead, as the impact of Hengli's shutdown expands, the supply side is expected to continue to shrink in the near term. However, as industrial chain profits shift to styrene, the impact of maintenance may be weakened by the increased load of existing plants. Overseas commodity demand is being released intensively, and the high - level inventory of EPS, PS, and ABS is being reduced. However, attention should be paid to the possibility that a significant decline in downstream profits may affect the sustainability of operating rate growth. In terms of cost, the relationship between the US and Iran is expected to ease, OPEC+ maintains its stance of increasing production, and international oil prices still have room to correct. The inventory of pure benzene is at a moderate level, and downstream enterprises are cautious about chasing price increases. The restart of domestic plants and the arrival of overseas resources may suppress the future increase of pure benzene prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Styrene prices rose significantly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the rise of international oil prices. The EB2506 contract closed at 7,661 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 9.36% from last week [7]. - On the supply side, production and capacity utilization decreased. On the demand side, most downstream operating rates increased. Inventory showed a mixed trend, with factory and East China port inventory decreasing and South China port inventory increasing. Cost increased, and non - integrated profits were repaired [7]. - In the short term, styrene is cautiously bullish. Pay attention to the pressure around 7,950 for EB2506 and around 7,880 for EB2507 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Futures Market: The main styrene contract rose sharply, and new warehouse receipts were registered this week. The trading volume decreased month - on - month, and the 06 - 07 spread strengthened slightly [8][13]. - Spot Market: The spot price increased, and the futures price was at a discount. The price of ethylene in RMB decreased slightly, while the price of pure benzene in East China increased significantly [17][23]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Supply: In March 2025, styrene production capacity was 22.242 million tons, and production was 1.5172 million tons, up 8.36% month - on - month and 32.55% year - on - year. This week, the capacity utilization rate of styrene plants decreased month - on - month [33][37]. - Demand: Downstream product prices stopped falling and rebounded, and most downstream operating rates increased. EPS and PS operating rates increased, ABS operating rate decreased, UPR operating rate increased, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased [40][44][49]. - Import and Export: In March, styrene imports were 5,700 tons, down month - on - month and up year - on - year; exports were 22,000 tons, down both month - on - month and year - on - year [56]. - Inventory: Port inventory was 81,700 tons, and factory inventory was 212,600 tons. East China port inventory was 56,700 tons, and South China port inventory was 25,000 tons [62][66]. - Cost and Profit: Non - integrated costs increased, and profits were repaired. Import profits continued to be in the red, and the import window was closed [70][74]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the main styrene contract was 28.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 31.79%, and that of put options was 31.78% [79].