聚乙烯市场周报-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by the reduction of Sino - US tariffs and the strengthening of international oil prices, L2509 rose significantly this week, with a 3.73% increase compared to last week's closing price, reaching 7236 yuan/ton as of May 16, 2025. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, with support around 7150 and resistance around 7340 [7]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply decreased due to plant shutdowns, with production down 5.41% to 610,000 tons and capacity utilization down 4.55% to 79.52%. Demand picked up, with the average downstream product start - up rate rising 0.57%. Inventory pressure is not large, with production enterprise inventory down 8.27% to 527,800 tons and social inventory up 0.99% to 617,700 tons. Cost differences emerged, with oil - based LLDPE turning from profit to loss and coal - based LLDPE profits rising [7]. - In May, the PE industry has concentrated maintenance. Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. Downstream demand varies by product, with packaging film orders increasing due to tariff cuts, while other products are in the off - season or have stable demand. International oil prices may adjust, which will impact costs [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: L2509 rose significantly this week, closing at 7236 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, up 3.73% from last week's close [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply decreased due to plant shutdowns. Demand stopped falling and rebounded. Inventory pressure is not large. Cost differences emerged between oil - based and coal - based LLDPE [7]. - Outlook: In May, there is concentrated maintenance in the PE industry. Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to decline slightly. Downstream demand varies, and international oil prices may adjust. The short - term trend of L2509 is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - Price, Volume: L2509 rose significantly this week, and the trading volume of the main contract increased significantly [8]. - Open Interest, Warehouse Receipts: The open interest decreased week - on - week, and new warehouse receipts were registered this week [12]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 monthly spreads strengthened slightly, while the 5 - 9 monthly spread weakened slightly. The L - PP spread strengthened [18][24]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - Price: Domestic LLDPE prices are in the range of 7470 - 7830 yuan/ton, and the CFR China quotation is 846 US dollars/ton [29]. - Basis: The futures price is at a discount, and the basis weakened [34]. 3.4 Industrial Situation - Upstream: This week, the RMB price of ethylene decreased slightly. In March, ethylene production and imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [38][41]. - Supply: In March, PE production increased month - on - month. This week, PE capacity utilization decreased week - on - week [45][50]. - Cost and Profit: This week, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased. Oil - based LLDPE profits shrank, coal - based profits recovered, and LLDPE import profits increased significantly, opening the import window [56][62][68]. - Inventory: This week, PE inventory decreased, and inventory pressure is not large [73]. 3.5 Demand in the Industrial Chain - Downstream Price: The prices of PE downstream products decreased [77]. - Downstream Start - up Rate, Plastic Product Output: This week, the average downstream start - up rate increased week - on - week. From January to March 2025, the cumulative output of plastic products increased 7.3% year - on - year. The start - up rate of different downstream products varied, with the packaging film start - up rate increasing 1.11% week - on - week, the agricultural film start - up rate decreasing 2.75% week - on - week, and the pipe start - up rate remaining stable [80][86][91]. - Plastic Product Export: From January to April 2025, the export value of plastic products decreased 2.10% year - on - year [91]. 3.6 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene is reported at 15.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 11.95%, and that of put options is 11.94% [95].