棉系周报：宏观情绪有所释放，郑棉走势略偏强-20250516

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the cotton market at home and abroad, suggesting that the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger due to macro - factors, and the trend of US cotton is also expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. It also provides corresponding trading strategies for options and futures [7][13][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market Analysis - US Cotton Market Outlook: Due to weather uncertainties and potential increased purchases from countries like Vietnam, the US cotton market is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [7]. - US Cotton Growth: As of May 11, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 28%, 4% slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The drought index in the main production areas and Texas continued to decline [7]. - US Cotton Sales: In the week ending May 8, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly contracts were 2.77 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 86% and a 2% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. Weekly shipments were 7.47 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17% and a 5% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks [7]. - CFTC Position: As of May 9, the number of un - priced seller contracts on the ON - CALL 2507 contract increased by 146 to 18,566, and the total number of un - priced seller contracts in the 24/25 season also increased by 146 to 18,566, equivalent to 420,000 tons [7]. - Global Production and Sales Forecast: According to the latest USDA data in May, the total cotton output in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a reduction of 710,000 tons compared to 2024/25; total consumption is 25.7 million tons, an increase of 304,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 17.06 million tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons [7]. - Other Countries' Situations: As of the week ending May 11, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 31,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. The cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.532 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7% [7]. 3.2 Domestic Market Logic Analysis - Market Trend: Zhengzhou cotton's trend was strong this week. Affected by macro factors, it is expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend in the short term [13]. - Supply Side: As of May 14, 2024, the cumulative public inspection of cotton in the 2024/25 season was 6,796,388 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.71%. As of May 9, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 3.8223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123,900 tons (a decrease of 3.14%) [13]. - Demand Side: It is currently the off - season for market consumption. As of the week ending May 15, the cotton inventory of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was equivalent to 28.8 days, and the yarn inventory of spinning enterprises in major areas was 29.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [13]. - Macro Aspect: During the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks from May 10 - 11, the US promised to cancel 91% of the tariffs on Chinese goods and modify 34% of the reciprocal tariffs, with 24% of them suspended for 90 days. China also made corresponding adjustments to counter - tariffs [13]. 3.3 Option Strategy - Volatility Judgment: The 120 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 10.6252, and the implied volatility of options increased slightly compared to the previous day [20]. - Option Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to wait and see. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 is 11.2%, and that of CF509 - P - 12600 is 13.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 is 15.1% [20]. 3.4 Futures Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Due to the substantial progress in the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to strengthen under macro - level influence [22]. - Strategies: - Unilateral: The future trend of US cotton is likely to be oscillating and slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong due to macro - influence [22]. - Arbitrage: Short September and long January [22]. - Options: Sell call options [22]. 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - Internal and External Price Difference: The report presents the trends of internal and external cotton price differences and the 9 - 1 price difference [24][25]. - Mid - end Situation: It shows the operating loads of pure - cotton yarn mills and full - cotton grey fabric mills, as well as the inventory days of yarn and grey fabric [27]. - Cotton Inventory: The report shows the historical data of national cotton commercial inventory, spinning enterprise industrial inventory, and reserve inventory [28]. - Spot - Futures Basis: It presents the basis data of cotton in different months and the basis of US cotton [30].