Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-05-16 10:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the beauty and personal care industry for 2024 and Q1 2025 [2] Core Insights - The beauty care sector is expected to benefit from the rise of domestic demand, with a projected steady growth in cosmetic demand in 2025, despite a slight decline in 2024 due to macroeconomic factors [4][9] - The competitive landscape is improving, with domestic brands gaining market share and performing well in promotional events [14][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The demand for cosmetics ended its decline in Q1 2025, showing a growth rate of 3.2%, although still lagging behind overall retail growth [4][5] - The cosmetics retail market is expected to see a steady growth trend in 2025, supported by improved consumer policies and rising income expectations [4][9] Performance of Cosmetic Sector - The cosmetic sector is projected to have a revenue growth rate of around 15% for 2024, with net profit growth slightly lower [20] - Key companies include: - Shangmei Co.: 2024 revenue of 6.793 billion yuan, up 62% [21] - Proya: 2024 revenue of 10.78 billion yuan, up 21% [21] - Marubi: 2024 revenue of 2.970 billion yuan, up 33.44% [21] Performance of Personal Care Sector - The personal care sector is expected to see significant growth in 2025, with companies like: - Runben Co.: 2024 revenue of 1.318 billion yuan, up 27.61% [19] - Ruoyuchen: 2024 revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, up 29.3% [19] Performance of Medical Beauty Sector - The medical beauty sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2025, with companies like: - Aimeike: 2024 revenue of 3.03 billion yuan, up 5.45% [18] - Langzi Co.: 2024 revenue of 5.69 billion yuan, down 0.2% [18] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Shangmei Co. and Proya for their strong brand matrices and growth potential [20] - Marubi for benefiting from social media traffic [20] - Runben Co. for its high cost-performance ratio and strong product innovation [20] - Suggested attention to Aimeike and Langzi Co. in the medical beauty sector [20]