黑色系焦煤焦炭日度策略-20250516

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The results of the China-US talks exceeded expectations, with the US reducing tariffs on China. The terminal's window period for rush exports and re - exports has been extended, and the demand expectation for the next two months has improved marginally [5]. - The situation of the Suez Canal has changed, with a 15% transit fee discount for large container ships starting from May 15, aiming to boost traffic and revenue [4]. - Wall Street banks and traders have adjusted their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Citi have postponed their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts [4]. - For coking coal, the domestic supply is increasing, and the inventory pressure is concentrated in coal mines. Although it benefits from tariff reduction in the short term, there is still pressure on the price after the rebound [5]. - For coke, steel mills have started the first round of price cuts in May. The cost support is weakening, and the short - term strategy is to go short on rallies [7]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Part 1: Trading Strategies and Spot - Futures Market Conditions 1. Domestic Prices - Futures: The prices of coking coal and coke showed weak performance after rebounding. The J2509 contract of coke closed at 1472.00 (unchanged), and the JM2509 contract of coking coal closed at 883.00 (unchanged) [13]. - Domestic Spot: The prices of first - grade and second - grade coke in Tangshan, and quasi - first - grade and first - grade coke in Rizhao remained unchanged. The prices of medium - sulfur and low - sulfur main coking coal in Lvliang and Anze also remained unchanged [14]. 2. Import Prices - The price of Mongolian 5 raw coal decreased by 5.00 yuan/ton to 820.00 yuan/ton, while the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal remained unchanged at 1015.00 yuan/ton. The prices of some imported coals such as Peak Downs (CFR) and Peak North (CFR) increased slightly, while others remained unchanged [18]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis 1. Supply and Demand - The operating rate of 110 sample coal washing plants was 63.01%, with a change of 1.11% compared to the previous period. The daily average output of clean coal was 53.44 tons, with a change of 1.34 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 75.27%, with a change of 1.86%. The daily average output of coke in independent coking plants and 247 steel mills also had corresponding changes [23]. 2. Inventory - The coking coal inventory in six ports decreased by 13.97 tons to 297.81 tons. The coking coal inventory in coking plants decreased by 42.66 tons to 916.62 tons, while the coking coal inventory in steel mills increased by 2.42 tons to 787.21 tons. The coke inventory in four ports decreased by 9.04 tons to 229.08 tons, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased by 4.52 tons to 94.44 tons, and the coke inventory in steel mills decreased by 4.19 tons to 671.03 tons [26]. Part 3: Price Spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the document, only figures related to price spreads are listed [34]