债市专题研究：跌到年线位置的TS或将企稳

Core Insights - From a technical analysis perspective, TS has dropped to the annual moving average (MA250) level, indicating potential support for current TS prices [9] - From a fundamental standpoint, the probability of continued tightening in monetary policy is low amid the US-China geopolitical context, suggesting significant downward elasticity for short-term interest rates and structural opportunities for bonds with maturities of up to 7 years [9][26] - The recent "double reduction" in monetary policy has led to a rapid decline in short-term interest rates, but short-term government bond yields have only decreased by 1-2 basis points, indicating room for further decline [26] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The banking system's low excess reserve ratio and the role of large banks in monetary policy transmission and market-making will lead to increased external influences on funding fluctuations, reducing predictability [12][16] - The supply of government bonds is expected to increase significantly in mid to late May, creating pressure on internal funding [12] - The "duration hugging" strategy has caused long-term bond yields to exhibit rapid fluctuations, with the market's sensitivity to various factors significantly reduced [27] Group 2: Investment Strategies - The current market environment favors a rotation between coupon income and capital gains, with short-term credit bonds showing potential for better performance [29] - Since March, there has been a notable decline in credit spreads for various credit ratings, indicating a shift in institutional buying behavior towards short-term credit bonds [29] - The expectation of a potential resumption of government bond purchases by the central bank in May to June could lead to a further decline in short-term bond yields [26][27]