黑色金属数据日报-20250516

Group 1: Basic Information - The report is a daily report on ferrous metals data, published by Guomao Futures on May 16, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Market Far - month Contracts (May 15) - RB2601: Closing price 3150 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan (0.67%) [2] - HC2601: Closing price 3272 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (0.49%) [2] - I2601: Closing price 698 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (1.01%) [2] - J2601: Closing price 1498.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.20%) [2] - JM2601: Closing price 899 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.73%) [2] Near - month Contracts (May 15) - RB2510: Closing price 3118 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.39%) [2] - HC2510: Closing price 3260 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan (0.46%) [2] - I2509: Closing price 736.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan (1.17%) [2] - J2509: Closing price 1472 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan (0.44%) [2] - JM2509: Closing price 883 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.34%) [2] Cross - month Spreads (May 15) - RB2510 - 2601: - 32 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2] - HC2510 - 2601: - 12 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2] - I2509 - 2601: 38.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan [2] - J2509 - 2601: - 26.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [2] - JM2509 - 2601: - 16 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [2] Spreads/Ratios/Profits (May 15) - Coil - rebar spread: 142 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Rebar - ore ratio: 4.23, down 0.01 [2] - Coal - coke ratio: 1.67, up 0.01 [2] - Rebar disk profit: - 109.03 yuan/ton, down 3.18 yuan [2] - Coking disk profit: 297.61 yuan/ton, up 5.3 yuan [2] Group 3: Spot Market May 15 Prices and Changes - Shanghai rebar: 3220 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Tianjin rebar: 3250 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [2] - Guangzhou rebar: 3440 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Tangshan billet: 2980 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2] - Platts index: 102.2, down 0.6 [2] - Shanghai hot - rolled coil: 3280 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2] - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil: 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Guangzhou hot - rolled coil: 3380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Billet - product spread: 240 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2] - Rizhao Port: PB ore: 780 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] - Super special powder: 645 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Another ore: 690 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Ganqimao Port: Coking coal: 970 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Qingdao Port: Quasi - first - grade coke: 1510 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Basis (May 15) - HC main contract: 20 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [2] - RB main contract: 102 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan [2] - I main contract: 55 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - J main contract: 186.66 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - JM main contract: 117 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan [2] Group 4: Industry Analysis Steel - Weekly steel data rebounded but did not exceed the normal range. Inventory and apparent demand data improved, and the market returned to normal, but was not stronger than the historical average. Spot trading volume was weak. The market sentiment may drive the futures price to fill the gap in early April, but the supply - demand structure in May may be weaker than in April, with a potential price decline risk [4] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price cuts is about to be implemented, and coking coal auction prices continue to fall. The black chain index touched the 20 - day line. Macro factors may affect the market sentiment. The "rush to export" during the 90 - day tariff suspension period may not significantly boost steel demand. The coal - coke market remains weak, and the high - short strategy is recommended. Consider the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [5] Ferroalloys - In the silicon - iron market, some Ningxia manufacturers have reduced production, creating a supply - demand gap and driving the futures price to rebound. Manganese - silicon production cuts have expanded, and the market may see a slowdown in the short - term rebound. Hebei Iron and Steel's tender prices are low [7] Iron Ore - The rebound driven by improved macro sentiment may provide a good cost basis. The comprehensive tariff is still high. High pig - iron production is expected to continue in May, and the port inventory will fluctuate slightly. After May, if the steel fundamentals weaken, steel prices may be weaker than iron - ore prices [8] Group 5: Investment Strategies - Steel: Hold a wait - and - see attitude for single - side trading. Choose hot - rolled coils for better liquidity in the spot - futures market, and conduct hedging and inventory management. For arbitrage, roll at high prices [9] - Coking Coal and Coke: Short on the single - side market. Pay attention to the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [9] - Ferroalloys: Hold the 9 - 1 calendar spread and short at high prices [9] - Iron Ore: Hold the 9 - 1 calendar spread and short at high prices [9]