美联储主席鲍威尔讲话：美联储货市政策框架要“向前看”

Group 1: Monetary Policy Framework Adjustments - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell discussed potential adjustments to the long-term monetary policy framework, particularly the "Flexible Average Inflation Targeting" (FAIT) and "Mitigating Shortfalls from Maximum Employment" frameworks[2] - The Fed's current monetary policy framework needs to adapt to the post-pandemic economic environment, moving away from the previous "three lows" (low rates, low growth, low inflation) context[4] - The introduction of asymmetric mechanisms in 2019 aimed to stimulate inflation and employment in a low-growth environment, allowing inflation to exceed 2% temporarily if it had been below that level for an extended period[4] Group 2: Inflation and Employment Targets - The Fed continues to maintain a 2% inflation target despite the recent adjustments to its policy framework, emphasizing the need to return to this target after inflation surged due to supply-demand imbalances[5] - Powell indicated that the Fed is not currently considering raising the 2% inflation target, as doing so could be misinterpreted as a signal of monetary easing[5] - The Fed's recent reliance on hard data suggests limited probability for a rate cut in July, with adjustments to the long-term framework not signaling a dovish stance[6] Group 3: Economic Risks - Risks include potential economic downturns due to reduced fiscal spending, worsening trade tensions, and liquidity issues in the U.S. Treasury market[7]