供需矛盾不突出，价格震荡为主

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week's view: From a supply - demand perspective, finished steel products would face pressure starting in May, potentially forcing steel mills to cut production. The probability of molten iron output peaking was high. Without clear administrative production restrictions, production cuts would require further compression of steel mill profits. The unilateral driving force for finished steel products might continue downward, but the absolute price was not low, and the risk of chasing short positions was relatively large. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's market analysis: The China - US tariff agreement exceeded market expectations, and the macro - environment improved, leading to a slight rebound in steel prices this week [5]. - This week's view: April's social financing data showed weak credit, and there was no optimistic outlook for steel demand. However, in the short term, May was still the traditional peak demand season. After the China - US agreement, there were expectations of marginal improvement in short - term exports. The supply - demand data for steel was still healthy, with both rebar and hot - rolled coils reducing inventory. Steel mills currently had no pressure to cut production, and prices were expected to fluctuate mainly [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - Last week's view: Finished steel faced pressure in May, molten iron output might peak. Without administrative restrictions, production cuts depended on profit compression. It was recommended to focus on short - profit positions [5]. - This week's analysis: China - US tariff agreement improved the macro - environment and led to a slight rebound in steel prices [5]. - This week's view: Weak April credit data, short - term demand support from the peak season and export expectations. Healthy supply - demand, inventory reduction, and expected price fluctuations [5]. 3.2 Weekly Highlights - China - US tariff agreement: The agreement cancelled tariffs imposed since April, and there was a significant short - term increase in Chinese containers exported to the US. Main steel - related downstream products to the US included steel products, railway and track devices, and electromechanical products [7]. - April credit data: Resident medium - and long - term loans decreased by 12.31 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 4.35 billion yuan, indicating a marginal weakening of real - estate sales in April. Enterprise loans increased by 61 billion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 25 billion yuan [9]. - Demand: Rebar's weekly apparent demand was 2.6029 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 463,900 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons [10][11]. - Supply: The daily average molten iron output was 2447,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons. The weekly output of five major steel products was 8.6835 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 211,700 tons. Rebar's weekly output was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. Hot - rolled coil's weekly output was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons [12][14]. - Inventory: Rebar's total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons. Hot - rolled coil's total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [15]. 3.3 Relevant Data Charts - Spot prices: Included historical data charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices from 2021 - 2025, as well as price, basis, and spread data for different dates in May 2025 [17][18]. - Spot profits: Included data charts of converter rebar and hot - rolled coil spot virtual profits and East China rebar flat - electricity profits from 2021 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - Pig iron production: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills on May 16, 2025, was 244,770 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 870 tons, and the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [29]. - Rebar production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, rebar production was 226,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3000 tons. The long - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 54.99%, a week - on - week increase of 0.53%, and the short - process rebar capacity utilization rate was 29.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.15% [33][35]. - Hot - rolled coil production and capacity utilization: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil production was 311,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8400 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 79.70%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15% [38]. - Rebar demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, rebar's apparent demand was 260,290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 46,390 tons. The total inventory was 619,870 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,760 tons [41]. - Hot - rolled coil demand and inventory: On May 16, 2025, hot - rolled coil's apparent demand was 329,530 tons, a week - on - week increase of 20,000 tons. The total inventory was 347,570 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 17,550 tons [43].