控回撤与持债结构：Q1债基全梳理-20250516

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, the number of newly issued bond funds continued to decline, and the fundraising scale shrank to less than 100 billion yuan. This is related to the pressure on the bond market and the prominent stock - bond seesaw effect. The outstanding share of bond funds decreased to 9.03 trillion shares at the end of Q1 [2][5][11]. - Public funds switched their preferences and returned to increasing the allocation of coupon - bearing assets. In Q1, funds concentrated on increasing the allocation of bank sub - debt, slightly increased the allocation of general credit bonds, and reduced the allocation of general commercial financial bonds for three consecutive quarters [3][5][20]. - For urban investment bonds, funds focused on the certainty of short - end sinking, with the proportion of bonds within 2 years reaching two - thirds. In terms of regional distribution, funds increased their holdings of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Tianjin, and significantly extended the holding duration of Chongqing urban investment bonds [3][5][28]. - For industrial bonds, funds preferred to increase their holdings in the building decoration industry. Public utilities, comprehensive, and transportation were still the top three industries with the largest heavy - holding scale. The proportion of industrial bonds within 1 year reached a new high [4][5][43]. - For financial bonds, funds rediscovered niche varieties. They repurchased small and medium - sized bank sub - debt and shifted their allocation strategy from long - term secondary capital bonds to short - term bonds. The holding scale of insurance bonds reached a record high [4][5][49]. Summary by Directory 1. Overview of Incremental Funds: Bond Market Volatility and Decline in Bond Fund Scale - In Q1 2025, 57 new bond - type funds were issued, with a fundraising scale of 87.8 billion yuan, the lowest in the past three years. Compared with Q4 2024 and the same period last year, there was a significant gap [2][11]. - Affected by factors such as increased capital - side fluctuations and overseas disturbances, the bond market sentiment was poor, while the stock market attracted incremental funds due to the "tech bull" market. The index of ordinary stock - type and partial - stock hybrid funds rose by 4.7% compared with the previous quarter, while the overall bond - type fund index only rose by 0.02% quarter - on - quarter. Short - term bond funds and money market funds had better defensiveness, and long - term bond funds declined. The outstanding share of bond - type funds decreased by 0.44 trillion shares quarter - on - quarter to 9.03 trillion shares at the end of Q1 [2][15]. 2. Preference from Heavy - Holding Bonds: Consistency in Short - Bond Allocation - Public funds increased their heavy - holding scale of credit bonds by 3.2% quarter - on - quarter to 80.65 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a relatively obvious signal of increasing holdings since Q1 last year. At the same time, the holding scale of interest - rate bonds decreased by 103.1 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter, with a reduction of over 3% [20]. - Urban Investment Bonds: - Funds maintained a stable allocation of urban investment bonds, mainly concentrating on AA +, AA, and AA(2) grades. The holding proportion of AA and below grades remained stable at around 56%. As of the end of April, the net financing of urban investment bonds was weaker than in previous years [28]. - The holding duration of urban investment bonds was mainly within 2 years, accounting for two - thirds. The proportion of bonds over 3 years was controlled within 15% [3][28][32]. - In terms of regional distribution, funds increased their holdings of urban investment bonds in Zhejiang, Shandong, and Tianjin, with the holding scale increasing by more than 1 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter. Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu were still the top three regions in terms of absolute holding scale [35]. - The holding duration of Chongqing urban investment bonds was significantly extended by 1.04 years quarter - on - quarter to 2.19 years. The holding durations of urban investment bonds in North China regions such as Hebei, Henan, and Beijing also slightly increased [39]. - Industrial Bonds: - Funds preferred to increase their holdings in the building decoration industry, with an increase of 2.5 billion yuan quarter - on - quarter. Public utilities, comprehensive, and transportation were still the top three industries with the largest heavy - holding scale, with heavy - holding scales of 24.9 billion yuan, 19.6 billion yuan, and 10.4 billion yuan respectively [43]. - The proportion of industrial bonds within 1 year reached a new high, while the proportion of bonds over 2 years decreased. Overall, the proportion of industrial bonds within 3 years was about 74%. The holding duration of transportation industry bonds was extended to over 2 years, and the duration of coal bonds was also extended by about 0.4 years [4][46]. - Financial Bonds: - Funds repurchased small and medium - sized bank sub - debt. The holding scale of small and medium - sized bank sub - debt increased by 5.4 billion yuan in Q1, accounting for 15% of the total secondary - tier and perpetual bonds. The allocation of secondary capital bonds slowed down compared with Q4 last year, while funds turned to net buying of bank perpetual bonds [49]. - The allocation strategy shifted from long - term secondary capital bonds to short - term bonds. Funds increased their holdings of secondary capital bonds within 1 year the most, with the proportion rising to 28%. For bank perpetual bonds, shorter - term bonds within 1 year and 1 - 2 years were more preferred [53]. - The holding scale of insurance bonds reached a record high. Funds had increased their holdings of this variety for three consecutive quarters. As of the end of Q1, the heavy - holding scale of insurance bonds reached 1.66 billion yuan [57].