GEELY AUTO(00175) Minsheng Securities·2025-05-16 12:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Geely Automobile [6] Core Views - Geely Automobile's Q1 2025 performance is impressive, with total sales reaching 704,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.5%. Total revenue reached 72.5 billion RMB, up 24.5% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders was 5.67 billion RMB, a significant increase of 263.4% year-on-year [1][2] - The increase in sales, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment, which saw sales of 339,000 units (up 135.4% year-on-year), has positively impacted revenue. The average selling price (ASP) for Q1 2025 is estimated at 103,000 RMB, a decrease of 19,000 RMB year-on-year [1][2] - The gross margin improved slightly to 15.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.2 percentage points. The report attributes this to changes in export structure and product mix, as well as a decrease in expenses due to better integration and collaboration within the company [2] - Geely's plan to privatize Zeekr (ZK.N) is seen as a strategic move to consolidate resources and enhance operational efficiency, aligning with the company's focus on high-end luxury electric vehicles [3] Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for Geely from 2025 to 2027 are projected at 404.78 billion RMB, 489.69 billion RMB, and 572.83 billion RMB, respectively. The net profit forecasts for the same period are 16.21 billion RMB, 22.09 billion RMB, and 25.98 billion RMB, respectively [3][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.61 RMB, 2.19 RMB, and 2.58 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 11, 8, and 7 [3][5]