奶牛：心中的涨声

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The raw milk price is fundamentally influenced by supply and demand, with supply factors including domestic production and import levels, while demand factors consider macroeconomic conditions, population structure, and substitutes [3] - The industry is undergoing a transition from "incremental" supply to "quality improvement," with enhanced production efficiency driven by breed quality, production performance, and scale [4] - Short-term demand is weak due to macroeconomic conditions and competition from substitutes, but there is significant growth potential in the medium to long term due to low per capita consumption and increasing health awareness among residents [4] Summary by Sections Supply Side Quality Improvement - The industry is experiencing a dual pressure of price and cost, leading to accelerated elimination of outdated production capacity [4] - The production efficiency of dairy cows is improving across various metrics, including breed quality and scale [4][14] Demand Side Potential - Recent years have seen weak dairy consumption, with a decline in both sales and imports of dairy products [56] - The overall sales of dairy products decreased by 11% year-on-year in 2024, and imports fell by 6% [60] - Factors contributing to weak demand include macroeconomic conditions, declining birth rates, and a mismatch between supply structure and consumer preferences [61][66] Historical Development of the Dairy Industry - The dairy industry in China has evolved through several phases, from initial development to a period of quality improvement and now to a revitalization and transformation phase [21] - The current distribution of milk sources is concentrated in northern regions, with significant production in provinces like Inner Mongolia and Hebei [22] Production Capacity and Trends - The number of dairy cows has decreased by 4.5% year-on-year in 2024, indicating a trend of capacity reduction [53] - The total milk production in China for 2024 is projected to be 40.79 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% compared to the previous year [53] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The per capita consumption of dairy products in China remains low compared to developed countries, with significant room for growth as health awareness increases [66][70] - Urban-rural consumption disparities persist, with urban residents consuming significantly more dairy than their rural counterparts [74]