美国经济：关税削弱信心与需求

Economic Overview - In April, U.S. retail and manufacturing output significantly slowed, indicating the impact of tariffs on consumer confidence and demand[1] - Retail sales for durable goods, such as automobiles and furniture, showed a marked decline, while non-durable goods retail also weakened[1] - The unemployment rate remains low, with initial jobless claims at 229,000, consistent with market expectations, and continuing claims slightly rising to 1.881 million[2] Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - Inflation is expected to rebound in the short term from May to August, but the unemployment rate is projected to remain low, leading the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged[2] - Inflation may peak around September and start to decline thereafter, with potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in September and possibly again in November or December[1][2] Retail Performance - April retail and food service sales showed a seasonally adjusted month-on-month growth of 0.1%, slightly above the market expectation of 0%[5] - Durable goods consumption, particularly in automotive, fell from a growth of 5.5% in March to -0.1% in April, while non-durable goods like sports and clothing saw declines of -2.5% and -0.4% respectively[5] Manufacturing Output - Industrial production remained flat in April, slightly below the expected 0.1% increase, with manufacturing output declining by 0.4%[5] - Key sectors such as electrical lighting and medical equipment saw declines of 3.4% and 2.2%, while aerospace and semiconductor production grew by 1% and 2% respectively[5]