KSTAR(002518) Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-16 13:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company is expected to face a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024 due to a slowdown in demand for household energy storage in Europe and increased impairment losses related to photovoltaic power plants [1]. - The company is actively expanding into new industries such as data centers and new markets in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, which are anticipated to offset the impacts of inventory digestion from downstream customers [3][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company is projected to achieve revenue of 4.16 billion yuan, a year-over-year decrease of 23.54%, and a net profit of 394 million yuan, down 53.38% year-over-year [1]. - The first quarter of 2025 is expected to show a revenue of 943 million yuan, an increase of 13.51% year-over-year, but a decline in net profit by 10.44% year-over-year [1]. - The breakdown of revenue for 2024 includes: - Smart power and data center products: 2.60 billion yuan, up 3.51% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 35.29% [2]. - Energy storage and charging products: 1.36 billion yuan, down 49.43% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 16.63% [2]. - New energy revenue: 18 million yuan, down 53.78% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 21.95% [2]. - Supporting products: 145 million yuan, down 10.50% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 32.27% [2]. Profit Forecast - The company’s revenue is projected to recover in the following years, with estimates of 5.78 billion yuan in 2025, 7.40 billion yuan in 2026, and 9.32 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting growth rates of 39.10%, 27.86%, and 26.00% respectively [4]. - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 552 million yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 40.06% [4]. - The company’s valuation metrics are projected to improve, with price-to-earnings ratios of 24, 17, and 14 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4].