浆价的周期、反馈与联动

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pulp price follows certain rules, including the inventory cycle of the US dollar market, the positive and negative feedback in the pulp and paper industry chain, and the linkage and divergence between different pulp types [3][4][5]. - The key to judging the inventory cycle of the US dollar market lies in demand changes. Seasonal demand growth often drives the pulp price to rise rapidly [16][17]. - The positive feedback of the pulp price increase comes from the improvement of the overseas US dollar market demand, and the negative feedback of the decline comes from the weakening of the apparent demand for finished paper [21][22]. - The external quotes of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp generally move in the same direction, and the structural surplus of some pulp types may lead to the failure of the valuation system based on import costs and basis [31][42]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Inventory Cycle of the US Dollar Market - China has a high import - dependence on pulp supply, with softwood pulp almost entirely imported and imported hardwood pulp accounting for over 60% of the total [9]. - The price change of the overseas US dollar market follows the inventory cycle, including passive de - stocking, active stocking, passive stocking, and active de - stocking [10]. - The key to judging the inventory cycle of the US dollar market is demand. Short - term pulp consumption has obvious seasonal characteristics, and long - term demand shows a moderate growth trend [16]. - Seasonal demand growth often leads to the pulp price rising rapidly, and the rapid increase in pulp external quotes in the past 5 years mainly occurred during China's consumption peak seasons [17]. 2. Positive and Negative Feedback in the Pulp and Paper Industry Chain - The positive feedback of the pulp price increase starts from the improvement of pulp consumption, which drives the improvement of the US dollar market demand and the increase of quotes, forming a positive feedback loop among the US dollar market, domestic pulp futures prices, and finished paper prices [21]. - The negative feedback of the decline starts from the weakening of the apparent demand for finished paper, leading to a cycle of falling paper and pulp prices. In recent years, the price and profit of paper have been more severely affected than those of pulp [22]. - In the feedback process, domestic pulp futures react to demand changes in advance, and the peak - to - decline of finished paper production can be regarded as the starting point of the futures price decline [23][26]. - After 2023, although the production of domestic downstream finished paper increased, the high point of the futures price decreased, which was restricted by factors such as the overseas energy crisis, new device production, and unstable quality of some delivery products [30]. 3. Linkage and Divergence between Pulp Types - The external quotes of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp generally move in the same direction, and a single project's production will affect the overall pulp price. Since 2014, the correlation between the external quotes of Star and Silver Star has been 0.86 [31]. - The external softwood - hardwood price difference shows a wave - like upward trend, driven by project production, and this drives downstream formula replacement and has a negative impact on the futures price [35][40]. - In the process of the softwood - hardwood price difference widening, adding more hardwood pulp to raw materials is a more economical choice. In the long - term, the proportion of softwood pulp in the formula of downstream finished paper enterprises has been decreasing [40]. - The structural surplus of some pulp types may lead to the futures price being priced closer to the lowest - priced delivery product, and the valuation system based on import costs and basis may fail [42]. - The price difference between different softwood pulps has widened, and the futures pricing anchor has shifted to Russian softwood pulp. The return of the pricing anchor depends on factors such as the lifting of sanctions on Russia, upstream maintenance, and improvement of pulp quality [44][46].