策略日报：延续缩量-20250516

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market continues to experience a volume contraction, with a trading volume of 1.12 trillion, down by 0.07 trillion from the previous day. The market saw 2,869 stocks rise, 2,052 fall, and 200 remain flat. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down by 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.07%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.19%. It is expected that technology, dividend, and consumer sectors will rotate upwards in the future [2][18][20] - In the U.S. stock market, the S&P 500 rose by 0.41%, the Nasdaq fell by 0.18%, and the Dow Jones increased by 0.65%. The S&P 500 has recovered the previously mentioned resistance level of 5,700, supported by changes in trade policy and significant stock buybacks from companies like Apple and Google, which plan to increase buybacks by $100 billion and$70 billion, respectively. The outlook for U.S. stocks has been changed to neutral [2][24][25] Group 2: Bond Market - The bond market is experiencing a decline across the board. The outlook suggests that there will be a need for further adjustments due to the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations. Technically, the ten-year government bond has broken down, and it is expected to rebound after a few days of fluctuation [1][15] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.2020, down by 84 basis points from the previous day. The RMB has appreciated significantly due to unexpected positive developments in U.S.-China trade relations. The offshore RMB shows signs of strengthening, with the previous high of 7.42 likely to be the peak for this round of depreciation. The RMB is expected to rise to around 7.1 [2][30][33] Group 4: Commodity Market - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 1.02%, with precious metals and ferroalloy sectors leading the gains, while coal, building materials, and oil sectors declined. Despite the overall bearish trend in the commodity market, the likelihood of a bullish reversal is increasing due to the easing of trade tensions. Investors are advised to manage risks and consider cautious long positions [3][34]