银河期货沥青日报-20250516

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Demand is stable month - on - month, supply has rebounded, and the inventory accumulation speed of the industrial chain has slowed down since the second quarter. Low inventory supports near - term spot prices and benefits the long - term peak - season expectations. Oil prices are under pressure due to the smooth progress of the Iran nuclear deal. The unilateral price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and there is room for the asphalt/oil price spread to widen. The operating range of the BU2506 contract is expected to be between 3400 - 3550 [8]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On May 16, 2025, the prices of BU2506 (the main contract), BU2507, and BU2508 increased by 1.27%, 0.49%, and 0.35% respectively compared to the previous day, while SC2506 decreased by 1.51%. The main contract's open interest decreased by 4.62% to 7.5 million lots, and trading volume decreased by 8.92% to 11.9 million lots. The number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 86,520 tons [2]. - Basis and Calendar Spreads: The spreads of BU06 - 07 and BU07 - 08 increased by 122.73% and 25.00% respectively. The Shandong - main contract basis, East China - main contract basis, and South China - main contract basis decreased by 12.50%, 30.36%, and 26.56% respectively [2]. - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The low - end prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. Shandong gasoline and diesel prices decreased by 0.66% and 0.79% respectively. The price of Shandong petroleum coke remained unchanged, and the discount of diluted asphalt remained at - 5.3. The central parity rate of the exchange rate decreased by 0.03% [2]. - Spreads and Profits: Asphalt refinery profits decreased by 53.26% to - 79.00, refined oil comprehensive profits decreased by 12.14% to 365.91, BU - SC cracking spread increased by 19.83% to - 267.43, gasoline spot - Brent decreased by 5.58% to 941.70, and diesel spot - Brent decreased by 7.23% to 737.01 [2]. 2. Market Analysis - Market Overview: On May 16, the average domestic asphalt price was 3,673 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.6 yuan/ton or 0.16% from the previous day. Crude oil prices continued to fall, and market sentiment was cautious. In the North, although the prices of major refineries increased, actual demand was insufficient, and traders' selling prices decreased to stimulate sales. In the South, major refineries mainly shipped by sea, and asphalt prices lacked upward momentum [5]. - Regional Markets: In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,600 - 3,760 yuan/ton. Refinery inventories were low, but due to falling crude oil prices and weak terminal demand, some refineries and traders slightly reduced prices. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,570 yuan/ton. Major refineries planned to reduce production, which supported prices. In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3,380 - 3,430 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, and some refineries reduced prices to stimulate sales. Future demand is expected to gradually recover, but the rainy season and unstable crude oil prices will keep asphalt prices weakly stable [5][6]. 3. Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the open interest of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][16].