苹果产业风险管理日报-20250516

Report Information - Report Name: Apple Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: May 16, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The current contradiction in the apple market revolves around the production volume expectation of the new production season, and the market is in a game over the fruit - setting situation in the production areas [3] Summary by Directory Apple Price Range Prediction - The monthly price range prediction for apples is 7500 - 8500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 32.4% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 99.2% [3] Apple Risk Management Strategy Suggestions - Inventory Management: For those worried about a bumper harvest of new apples and low purchase prices, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to short apple futures (AP2510) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 8000 - 8100 [3] - Procurement Management: For those worried about a decline in old - crop apple inventory, a new - crop apple yield reduction, and high purchase prices, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy apple futures (AP2510) to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 7500 - 7600 [3] 利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - Qilu Yuanquan, the largest delivery warehouse in the eastern production area, was suspended from delivery business by the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, indicating stricter delivery quality inspection requirements and being unfavorable to the delivery side [4] - The inventory in the production areas is at a historical low. The low initial inventory and a faster de - stocking speed than in previous years have led to a continuous decline in inventory, which supports the futures price [4] - Unstable weather in the production areas has attracted capital attention. Research data shows that the fruit - setting situation in the northwest production area is poor, possibly leading to a large - scale yield reduction [4] 利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Although the production areas experienced gale, cooling, and dry - hot wind weather in April, it is too early to estimate the yield, and there are doubts about the results of current research reports indicating a large - scale yield reduction due to poor fruit - setting [5] Apple Futures and Spot Price Changes - Futures prices of different contracts (AP01, AP03, etc.) showed various daily and weekly changes on May 16, 2025. For example, AP01 closed at 7711 with a daily increase of 0.27% and a weekly decrease of 0.12% [5] - Spot prices of different apple varieties (Qixia first - and second - grade 80, Luochuan semi - commodity 70, etc.) also had different daily and weekly changes. For example, the price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 with no daily or weekly change [5] - Other indicators such as盘面利润 (futures profit), 交割理论价格 (theoretical delivery price), 主力基差 (main contract basis), etc. also showed corresponding changes [5] Apple Inventory - On May 16, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory data from Steel Union was 195.1 with a weekly decrease of 33.76, and the data from Zhuochuang was 165.82 with a weekly decrease of 25.37 [7] - The capacity utilization ratios of different regions (Shandong, Shaanxi, etc.) also showed weekly decreases [7] - The arrival vehicle numbers and their weekly changes in some wholesale markets (Guangdong Chalong, Guangdong Jiangmen, etc.) were provided [7]