软商品日报-20250516

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Apple: ななな, no clear indication from the given star system [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Natural rubber: ななな, no clear indication from the given star system [1] - Butadiene rubber: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The market conditions of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and international negotiations. Most commodities are recommended for temporary observation due to uncertainties in the market [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton futures declined slightly today. Spot cotton trading improved compared to yesterday but remained sluggish overall. The cotton yarn market lacked confidence but had a high willingness to hold prices [2] - In April, China's textile and clothing exports were $241.86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% and a month - on - month increase of 3.35%. Textile exports were $125.8 billion, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%, and clothing exports were $116.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% and a month - on - month increase of 2.25% [2] - Zhengzhou cotton's recent strength was driven by positive news from China - US negotiations, but the impact on downstream orders was limited. China's cotton inventory decreased well from March to April. If the negotiations continue to improve, the end - of - season inventory may be tight [2] - It is recommended to either wait and see or try the bull spread strategy of options [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar prices pulled back. In May, less rainfall in Brazil is beneficial for sugarcane crushing, and sugarcane and sugar production are expected to rise [3] - Most international consulting firms expect the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to remain high, above 4000 tons [3] - In April, China's sugar sales data was positive. Despite the increase in production in Guangxi, the inventory decreased year - on - year due to a faster sales pace, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - In the first quarter, the imports of sugar and syrup decreased significantly, which is beneficial for the sales of domestic sugar. The market's trading focus has shifted to consumption and imports. The domestic sugar sales are good, and both consumption and supply are positive for sugar prices. However, the US sugar trend is downward, and the upside space for Zhengzhou sugar is limited. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. As the temperature rose across the country, the demand for apples decreased, and the listing of seasonal fruits also impacted apple demand [4] - The procurement enthusiasm of merchants in the producing areas decreased, and the delivery speed slowed down. The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season production estimate. Although the flower buds in the western producing areas were sufficient this year, the fruit - setting rate was low due to high temperatures and strong winds during the flowering period, which may lead to lower - than - expected production. However, there are still differences in the market's production expectations. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber, and Synthetic Rubber - Today, the prices of RU, NR, and BR all declined. The domestic natural rubber spot price decreased slightly, and the butadiene rubber spot price remained stable. The export price of butadiene in the international market increased, and the price of raw materials in Thailand decreased [6] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the growth period, and domestic and foreign production areas have fully started production. The operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants rebounded significantly this week [6] - The domestic tire operating rate rebounded significantly this week, and the finished - product inventory increased again. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao continued to rise to 61.87 tons, and the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber increased slightly to 1.35 tons, while the upstream butadiene export inventory decreased significantly to 3.09 tons [6] - Overall, demand has recovered, supply has increased, inventory has continued to rise, cost - driven factors have strengthened, and market sentiment has weakened. It is recommended to be cautious and hold cross - variety arbitrage positions [6] Pulp - Today, pulp prices declined. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing pulp was stable at 6350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hebei Wushubxuan pulp was 5450 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was stable at 4200 yuan/ton [7] - As of May 15, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 219,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.0%. The domestic import inventory was relatively high year - on - year. The demand for pulp remained weak. The pulp imports in April decreased month - on - month, and it is expected that imports in May and June will continue to decline month - on - month. The recent price increase was mainly driven by macro factors, and its sustainability is still uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Log - The futures price was weak. The spot price remained stable. The shipping of New Zealand logs has entered the off - season, and the future arrival volume will continue to decrease, and the supply pressure will decline [8] - The peak season is gradually ending, and the log delivery volume has reached a phased high and will gradually decline. The national log inventory continued to decrease, but the inventory of radiata pine increased month - on - month because the downstream demand has entered the off - season, and the price of radiata pine lumber has started to decline, indicating a short - term oversupply [8] - Overall, demand is gradually entering the off - season, and supply is relatively sufficient. The log fundamentals are relatively weak. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [8]